Last October, following the Hamas attacks, Israel’s military delivered evacuation orders for many of Gaza’s 2.3 million people, telling them to head south for their own safety.
Multiple evacuation orders ensued, and it is now estimated that more than 1.5 million Palestinians are taking refuge in and around the southern city of Rafah, vastly swelling its pre-war population of 280,000.
Many of those now in Rafah, which sits on Gaza’s southern border with Egypt, are living in temporary accommodation. Satellite imagery from Planet Labs, dated from 13 October and 14 January, shows a significant increase in tents around the city.
Analysis of satellite data by Corey Scher of the City University of New York and Jamon Van Den Hoek of Oregon State University reveals that there is not much left for these people to return to elsewhere in Gaza.
As of 2 February, between 53% and 65% of all buildings in the Gaza Strip were estimated to have probably been damaged or destroyed. Footage posted on X by UNRWA on Thursday shows some of the damaged areas in and around Gaza City.
The scale of damage varies from north to south. While between 73% and 84% of buildings in Gaza City and 69-81% of buildings in north Gaza were likely damaged or destroyed, the rate was lower in the southern city of Khan Younis at 50-63%. This number will likely be higher now as Khan Younis has been the recent focus of Israeli operations.
In Rafah, it is estimated that 29-40% of the buildings were destroyed as of 2 February, reinforcing the sense that it is the Palestinian territory’s last place of relative safety.
But this may change if the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, follows through on his announced intent to press on with ground operations there.
The maps below show how the damage has spread further south over the last couple of weeks as the IDF shifted its military activity, pushing displaced people closer to Rafah.
In the event of a ground assault on Rafah without a credible plan to evacuate civilians it is unclear where the Palestinians who have fled there, many displaced multiple times since October, could go.
There are already reports of civilian casualties in Rafah. Video from 12 February shows pre-dawn Israeli strikes and the destroyed buildings and craters left in the aftermath.
Israel is facing growing pressure from foreign governments and aid agencies not to push into Rafah.
On Monday, the US president, Joe Biden, joined international calls against an offensive in the city, saying Israel should not go ahead with such an assault “without a credible plan for ensuring the safety and support of more than 1 million people sheltering there”.
On Thursday, Australia, Canada and New Zealand warned Israel “not to go down this path”, issuing a joint statement saying “an expanded military operation would be devastating” as “there is simply nowhere else for civilians to go”.
Israel insists it must push into Rafah, eliminate Hamas battalions and achieve “complete victory”.
