The war in Ukraine is exacerbating an already alarming global food crisis, experts warn.
Vulnerable and developing countries are hardest hit.
"Ukraine feeds 400 million people," Julian Cribb, science writer and the author of Food or War, told The Drum.
"A lot of people – especially in the Middle East and Africa – rely on Ukraine for their daily food."
The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that the number of "severely food insecure people" doubled from 135 million before the pandemic, to 276 million at the start of 2022 – and the war in Ukraine is expected to drive this up to 323 million by the end of the year.
David Beasley, the head of WFP, has called Russia's failure to open the ports in Ukraine to grain and agricultural exports "a declaration of war on global food security."
How does conflict affect food supply?
Russia and Ukraine combined supply 12 per cent of all traded calories in the world – including more than one-quarter of globally traded wheat and barley, and three-quarters of the sunflower oil.
Since the start of the war, Ukraine's exports of grain and oilseeds have mostly stopped and Russia's are threatened.
According to simulations of the expected shortfall in food exports from Ukraine and Russia – and assuming food exports aren't increased elsewhere as a result – the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations says: "The number of undernourished people will increase by close to 19 million in 2023."
European Council president Charles Michel told the UN Security Council in June that the Kremlin was using food supply as a "stealth missile" against developing countries.
"I have seen it with my own eyes," he said.
"A few weeks ago in Odesa, millions of tonnes of grain and wheat stuck in containers and ships because of Russian warships in the Black Sea and because of Russia's attack on transport infrastructure.
"And it is Russian tanks, Russian bombs and mines that are preventing Ukraine from planting and harvesting."
There are other forces at play — like climate change
Supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the effects of climate change – like the heat waves in India – were already impacting the world's food supply before the war began.
"Ukraine was really just the domino that set off the chain reaction," Mr Cribb says. "It blew food prices through the roof.
There is also a water crisis building in the Middle East and North Africa which is contributing to the issue.
"Fresh water supplies three-quarters of the world's food – so if you run out of water, you stop growing food," Mr Cribb explains.
And the world's population is projected to reach 8.5 billion in 2030 – with more than half of this growth expected to occur in Africa.
"So the population is getting bigger, while the ability to grow food agriculturally is getting smaller," Mr Cribb says.
"That is the fundamental ingredient in this current crisis."
It's only the beginning — so what can we do?
The world is already experiencing "food shocks" – the loss of food supply due to climate events or geopolitical crises – and it's set to continue.
The UN Global Crisis Response Group on Food, Energy and Finance reported in June that "vicious cycles" in global food supply were emerging.
The food price index is at record levels, as are maritime trade costs, and oil and gas prices – the gas price in Europe is 10 times higher than 2020 levels.
"We're going to experience a number of these food shocks, as climate change, soil loss, water loss and conflict all damage the food supply," Mr Cribb told The Drum.
Mr Cribb says a solution could be to move our food supply from climate-dependent agriculture to something more sustainable.
"If we want to secure food supply based on agriculture, we have to stop changing the climate," Mr Cribb says.
"People are not willing to accept that yet, but do you want to eat — or burn coal?"
Is Australia at risk?
Empty supermarket shelves during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns made many Australians acutely aware of what food shortages look like.
"I think for the first time since World War II, Australians are considering food security," president of the Victorian Farmers' Federation, Emma Germano, told The Drum.
"Having said that though, the way that our governments have approached the issue of food security has been lacklustre.
"Other countries around the world have food security policies that last 50 or 100 years."
The federal government's current agricultural development and food security initiatives include contributions to the Global Agricultural and Food Security Program of $150 million between 2010 and 2024, and $9.5 million to the Pacific Food Security Initiative from 2020 to 2022.
But Australia alone can't plug the food supply hole caused by major climate events or the war in Ukraine.
"Australia is going to be feeding niche markets," Ms Germano explains.
"At the moment we're producing enough for 60 or 70 million people."
