It's been a bleak few months for fans of the Collingwood Football Club.
From a tumultuous trade period through to the botched release of the Do Better Report and the departure of long-term president Eddie McGuire, the off-season was bad enough.
But things have only gotten worse since the men's footy season started. When the siren sounded at the MCG last Saturday afternoon, the Magpies had slumped to a 1-6 record with only winless North Melbourne keeping them off the bottom of the table.
The biggest club in the land is floundering. Coach Nathan Buckley is in the spotlight.
Yet, it's less than three years since they came within a goal of winning a premiership. So what's gone wrong, and can they turn it around?
Patterns form
When football clubs talk about their "brand" these days, they're no longer referring to just their nickname, logo and colours – it's also their style of play.
"We believe that if we execute our brand, we'll beat anyone," Buckley said after a win last year.
"We've always had that confidence in the way we play."
Collingwood's brand in recent years has been pretty simple: defend well, particularly inside 50, and the rest will look after itself.
The Magpies' defensive setup has been vice-like, squeezing and frustrating sides.
This year, Collingwood has struggled to lock down opponents to the same degree. After last weekend's loss to the Suns, Buckley was open about their problems.
"We built our DNA on defending well, and our offence has been an area of improvement," he said.
"But focusing on that we've maybe lost our DNA of defending the ground really well."
Looking a little deeper, their slide from an above-average to below-average defensive side may have started last year.
Through the centre, the Pies have generally had enough talent to produce quick scoring forays, which has been necessary for their undersized forward line to thrive.
With Adam Treloar and Tom Phillips leaving in the off-season, and Taylor Adams and Steele Sidebottom absent for much of this year, they've had to shuffle their midfield line-ups, which has hurt their connection at the coalface and ability to spread and defend across the ground.
The result has been that for the first time since 2014 they're losing the territory battle.
The forward line has been weakened by the departure of Jaidyn Stephenson, more injuries to Jamie Elliott, Mason Cox's loss of form, and the partial redeployment of Jordan De Goey. It has meant that the Pies have had to experiment with throwing Darcy Moore up forward at times, weakening the defence further.
The Pies thrive when the forward line is open, with space and speed playing to the strengths of targets like Brody Mihocek. When their ball movement is slowed, they struggle to find good options.
At the heart of all of these issues is depth, and the Magpies' apparent lack thereof.
Take you apart
There are always two looming issues for clubs in the premiership window — the salary cap, and time. If one doesn't get you, the other usually will.
When clubs are under pressure from these factors, they can sometimes get a bit desperate.
It's not uncommon for teams seemingly on the cusp of a premiership to buy into the idea of the mythological "missing piece"; that one player who will take them from good to great.
A year after losing the 2018 decider to West Coast, Collingwood decided to chase former Pies star Dayne Beams.
When Beams was sent to the Brisbane Lions four years earlier, the Magpies had made out like bandits, receiving Jack Crisp and a draft pick that became Jordan De Goey.
But to get him back they had to give up a pair of first round picks. It didn't work out — Beams struggled with form and health issues, and was forced into early retirement.
The subsequent payout brought a tight salary situation to crisis point.
Collingwood pivoted and began to shop around several of their highly paid core players. Adam Treloar was sent to the Western Bulldogs, Jaidyn Stephenson (and Atu Bosenavulagi) to North Melbourne, Tom Phillips to Hawthorn.
These were effectively salary dumps and brought back little in the way of meaningful trade returns, leaving the Pies desperately short on depth.
To fill out their list, Collingwood invested heavily in the 2021 draft, using more picks than any other club.
"We're not the same list that we were. Our profile is very different." Buckley said.
"We're throwing them [young players] to the wolves a little bit and we're not supporting them as much as we'd like to."
This has been at the heart of their problems this year. The majority of their core from the 2018 team is still in place and performing reasonably well as a collective.
However the fringe players around them are a class below what was there before. Draftees rarely contribute at a high level in their first two years, but Collingwood is relying heavily on them to fill gaps.
The current draftees are also probably the last full draft crop the club will be able to bring in for a season or two. The much-hyped recruitment of Nick Daicos, son of Pies legend Peter, will likely eat up all of their 2021 draft stock and some of their early 2022 picks as well.
In the meantime, Collingwood will either need to pray for good health or find ready-made diamonds in the rough.
Alone in a crowd
At the start of the year, the expectations within Collingwood ranks were for a fourth-straight finals appearance.
Now, the club is left just fighting for pride, and without its own first-round pick available, there's no reward for failure this year.
Footy isn't played on paper, but the data shows the Magpies have copped their share of bad luck this season too.
That's not insignificant, and if some luck had fallen the other way the conversation would be much different. With a softer match-up against North Melbourne this week, it's a perfect opportunity for the Pies to refocus.
Meanwhile, Collingwood's off-field problems might take longer to fix, but will be just as important to its long-term health.
New president Mark Korda has already apologised unconditionally to Héritier Lumumba and Adam Treloar for their mistreatment.
Addressing the cultural issues outlined in the Do Better Report will be a key part of the club's overall rebuild.
