As that great American philosopher Yogi Berra once mused, “it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Nonetheless, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) recently named 18 “arenas of competition” that could transform the business landscape over the next 15 years.
Arenas of competition are defined as industries with fast-growing revenues and market cap and high dynamism (as measured by the turnover of companies at the top). To identify the list of 18, MGI assessed which industries are seeing the kind of technology and business model breakthroughs that have characterized arenas historically. The list includes some of the 12 arenas that emerged between 2005 and 2020, but many are new. The 18 cover a wide range of sectors (cybersecurity, nuclear fission); of goods (electric vehicles, obesity drugs) and of activity (video games, air mobility). They touch on everything from individual homes (modular construction) to the universe (space).
Predicting the arenas of the future is not an exact science, and their individual trajectories are even more uncertain. But it is likely that these 18 will go a long way to shape the future not only of business, but of society and the planet itself.
Leaders in innovation
To give an idea of the scale, in 2005, the 12 existing arenas generated almost a tenth of economic profit of the top 3,000 global companies by market capitalization. In 2019, it was half. Crucially, this was not only a matter of the big getting bigger (although many did). In 2020, a third of the market cap of those in the 12 arenas was held by companies that had been “outsiders” in 2005, meaning that they didn’t exist or were too small to be part of the sample. Companies in the 12 arenas also played an outsized role in innovation and investment, with twice the R&D per sales of companies that were not in arena industries.
The benefits of strength in the 18 potential arenas could be huge. McKinsey estimates that they could account for 16% of global GDP by 2040, with total revenues reaching $29 trillion to $48 trillion. Moreover, almost every company has some connection to an arena, such as using semiconductors, mining critical minerals for batteries, accessing the cloud, or protecting their data through cybersecurity.
The good news is that the U.S. is well positioned in all these high-growth, high-profit, and dynamic industries. North American companies account for at least half of the top 10 companies in two-thirds of the future arenas. In e-commerce and semiconductors, the U.S. is home to seven of the top 10 companies, and in cloud services eight of the top 10. Several of the technologies that are key to the growth of future arenas, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous vehicles, originated in Silicon Valley.
Maintaining this position of strength is not a given. For private-sector business leaders, it will require facing difficult questions, starting with whether they are, or could be, in an arena. If they are, the questions proliferate: Where will the capital come from? How can we create value? What are the risks? How fast should we move? Do we have the necessary talent? Operating model? Culture? For investors, it’s about determining the right time to get in, and of course how you invest given the change associated with the arenas.
Across the board startups and incumbents, customers and suppliers will want to address how to develop the capabilities to compete, whether that is through human capital development (recruitment, education, and training), investing in technology, entering new businesses, or some combination.
Public sector leaders also need to engage. Trade and regulatory policies will play an important role in determining to what extent the arenas will grow, who will benefit, and how to manage the social risks. For example, the pace of the energy transition will be influential in determining the trajectory of arenas like electric vehicles and batteries, and also whether close-to-potential-arena sectors like clean hydrogen join the club.
At the grassroots level, if the arenas progress along the lines predicted by MGI, they will bring substantial changes to daily life, especially in cities. How could shared autonomous vehicles change public spaces and travel patterns? Could modular construction help address housing affordability? What kind of effect could obesity drugs have on public health? The 18 arenas, individually and collectively, have implications not only for urban economic growth, but for the health, wealth, and livelihoods of their residents.
The future is uncertain
How the future plays out is far from written in stone. Outcomes will be determined by how businesses invest, how leaders set priorities, and how the private and public sectors work together. It is certainly possible, and even likely, that 15 years from now, it will be apparent that MGI got some of these wrong. Industries that do not exist now could muscle their way onto the list. Incumbents could falter. Geopolitics could up-end the business environment. Now-unknown technologies could emerge.
Indeed, the dynamism that characterizes the arenas implies volatility. Some of the 12 sectors in the 2005-20 arenas, such as payments and industrial electronics, are not included in the 18 future ones. It bears remembering, too, that of the top 20 companies by market cap in 2005, only four remained as of September 2024. As Yogi Berra wisely said, “The future ain't what it used to be.”
What can also be said, though, is that while MGI might not get the details precisely right, the growth and prosperity should give us all hope and optimism, most likely sits in these 18 arenas. They hold the promise of solving some of the biggest problems we experience today and thus improving both lives and livelihoods.
For that to happen, we will need to evolve, for example in the form of workforce development and effective regulation. Predicting the future is a risky business; preparing for it is not.
