Jorge Martin will have a chance to clinch the 2024 MotoGP title in the Barcelona Grand Prix sprint race on Saturday.
The Pramac rider needs to outscore factory Ducati rival Francesco Bagnaia by just two points in the half-distance event to be crowned champion and avenge for his defeat in 2023.
A total of 37 points are available in this weekend’s season finale, the venue for which has been moved to Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya due to heavy flooding in Valencia in the run-up to the event.
As things stand, Martin stands at the top of the standings on 485 points, 24 clear of second-placed Bagnaia on 461.
A victory in the sprint race would guarantee Martin his maiden world championship ahead of the final grand prix of the season on Sunday, but he can seal the title by finishing as low as eighth.
The Spaniard must leave Saturday with a lead of at least 26 points in order to win the championship with the main race still to run.
A 25-point lead wouldn’t suffice as the two-time, reigning champion Bagnaia has won 10 grands prix in 2024 compared to three for Martin - but the Pramac rider has won more sprint races.
How Jorge Martin can win the 2024 MotoGP title in the Barcelona sprint race
| If Martin wins... | Bagnaia's finishing position will not matter |
| If Martin finishes second... | Bagnaia must finish third or lower |
| If Martin finishes third... | Bagnaia must finish fifth or lower |
| If Martin finishes fourth... | Bagnaia must finish sixth or lower |
| If Martin finishes fifth... | Bagnaia must finish seventh or lower |
| If Martin finishes sixth... | Bagnaia must finish eighth or lower |
| If Martin finishes seventh... | Bagnaia must finish ninth or lower |
| If Martin finishes eighth... | Bagnaia must finish 10th or lower |
| If Martin finishes ninth or lower... | The title fight will continue until the grand prix |
Bagnaia’s best hope of retaining the title is to win the sprint and take the fight to Sunday’s race. In fact, given the pace shown by the top two so far, the most likely scenario on Saturday is Bagnaia winning with Martin finishing as a close runner-up.
But even if that scenario plays out, Martin will still have a substantial 21-point lead ahead of the main race in Barcelona. Then, even if Bagnaia wins the grand prix, Martin can clinch the title by finishing inside the top 11.
"It's already a privilege to be here [fighting for the championship]," said Martin. "I will try to do it on Saturday if it's possible, but it will be very difficult for sure."
Winning the 2024 championship would be a major milestone for Martin, as it would make him the first rider to win a premier class title with a satellite team since Valentino Rossi’s triumph in the last year of the 500cc era in 2001.
It will also mean that Martin would depart Ducati as the current champion and take the number one plate with him to his new employer Aprilia.
