One of the most consequential years for the planet has begun, with nations set to deliver fresh climate pledges as Trump returns to the White House and ICJ judges prepare a landmark ruling on climate accountability. Policy will also be shaped by a return to plastic treaty talks, Europe’s rollout of the first binding rules on deforestation, and a UN summit marking a decade since the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C target was set – a goal that's still dangerously out of reach.
Despite cooling La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean, scientists say that 2025 will still rank among the three hottest years on record. Temperatures are tipped to hit between 1.29C and 1.53C above pre-industrial levels, with extreme weather events continuing to devastate communities.
Earth’s average temperature breached 1.5C for the first time last year, prompting United Nations Secretary General Antionio Guterres to urge governments to "exit this road to ruin” in a New Year’s message that warned there was “no time to lose".
The UN's highest court will, sometime early this year, hand down a landmark advisory opinion on the legal obligations of states to address climate damages.
The International Court of Justice ruling, requested by Vanuatu and supported by over 130 countries, will carry significant moral and legal weight despite being non-binding. Legal experts say it will provide critical guidance for courts worldwide, linking human rights to environmental protection and setting benchmarks for climate accountability.
As this pivotal year for climate policy and justice gets underway, RFI breaks down the key moments to watch:
JANUARY
Second Trump presidency
The return of Donald Trump to the White House on 20 January is expected to create immediate setbacks for climate diplomacy. Trump has signalled his intention to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement for a second time.
The US is the world’s second-largest emitter, and plays an important role in global climate pacts. However renewable energy in the US is growing, supported by investments from the Inflation Reduction Act.
This means it will be difficult to stop moves towards decarbonising the economy, while states and local governments will be able to step up climate action in response to inaction on a federal level.
FEBRUARY
New national pledges
Countries are required to submit their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement by February. These plans, last handed in five years ago, will outline strategies to cut greenhouse emissions and adapt to climate impacts through 2035.
Existing NDCs have the world on track for 2.5C to 2.9C or warming.
Only four countries – representing 15 percent of global emissions – have so far submitted their updated plans. The UN has urged countries to focus on decarbonisation and renewable energy to close the emissions gap.
“Bolder new climate plans are vital to drive stronger investment, economic growth and opportunity, more jobs, less pollution, better health and lower costs,” said the UNFCCC secretariat in a recent report.
UN report warns increase in permanently dry land is 'redefining life on Earth'
Resumption of biodiversity talks
The second part of the Cop16 biodiversity summit will take place in Rome after talks in Colombia in November ended abruptly when negotiators left early to catch flights. The resumed conference aims to devise strategies to secure $200 billion in annual funding for biodiversity by 2030.
Governments are also expected to discuss ways for monitoring progress towards protecting 30 percent of the Earth’s land and seas by 2030. The thorniest issue remains how wealthy countries will fund nature protection in developing nations.
JUNE
Ocean conference
The third UN Ocean Conference, co-hosted by France and Costa Rica, will focus on advancing ocean conservation under the UN’s “Life Below Water” sustainable development goal.
Over five days, member states will work to set new targets and timelines for safeguarding marine life, with 10 specialist panels addressing topics ranging from fishery management and ocean finance to the restoration of deep-sea ecosystems.
Saudi Arabia hosts Cop16 to combat desertification crisis
MID-YEAR
Resumption of plastic treaty talks
Efforts to finalise the Global Plastics Treaty will continue this year after previous talks in 2024 failed to reach a consensus. Major disagreements remain over production limits, the elimination of certain products and chemicals, and waste management.
Proponents argue that a legally binding treaty is critical to addressing the global plastic crisis, with only 10 percent of the eight billion tonnes of plastic produced since 1950 having been recycled.
The treaty would be the first agreement of its kind to end plastic pollution.
Carbon-mapping satellite launch
MicroCarb, the first European satellite dedicated to mapping Earth's carbon dioxide levels, will launch after completing final tests. The joint UK-French mission will track how forests and oceans absorb carbon, while also scanning cities to help with sustainable urban planning.
From an altitude of 650km, its high-precision infrared spectrometer will collect the most detailed data yet on CO2 emissions, helping nations track their progress on Paris Agreement targets and distinguish between natural and human-caused emissions.
The European Space Agency's even more high-resolution CO2M satellite won't launch until 2026, however.
French farmland tainted by widespread microplastic pollution, study finds
NOVEMBER
Cop30 climate summit
The year’s biggest climate event, Cop30, will take place in Belem, Brazil, marking a decade since the Paris Agreement came into force. Discussions will focus on emissions mitigation, climate finance for developing nations and fossil fuel phase-down strategies.
Brazil, home to much of the Amazon rainforest, has positioned itself as a leader in global climate action, with deforestation in the region dropping to a nine-year low in 2024.
DECEMBER
Delayed EU deforestation rules take effect
From December, large companies trading commodities like beef, cocoa, soy and palm oil in the European Union must prove their products are deforestation-free. The regulation targets both legal and illegal deforestation and aims to curb the EU’s environmental footprint.
Goods from land cleared after December 2020 will be banned. Companies failing to comply face fines and restrictions, with small businesses granted an additional six-month grace period.
