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USA Today Sports Media Group
USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
Prince J. Grimes

How bettors should view the Brooklyn Nets after trading James Harden for Ben Simmons

NBA fans may finally get to see Ben Simmons play basketball this season, as the Brooklyn Nets are reportedly acquiring the three-time All-Star from the Philadelphia 76ers.

As part of the deal, Brooklyn is sending James Harden and Paul Millsap to the Sixers and also receiving Seth Curry, Andre Drummond and two first-round picks.

The move should immediately improve Brooklyn’s perimeter defense, as Simmons is a two-time All-Defensive first-teamer. Adding his size, length and versatility as a defender provides the Nets with help where they most need it. Bettors should expect that once Simmons gets into playing shape, Nets games result in fewer total points.

The Nets are in the midst of a nine-game losing streak in which they rank 29th in points allowed at 120.4 per game. They’re also giving up the third-worst opponent field goal percentage in that span and the seventh-most three-pointers per game.

Brooklyn has been a betting favorite for the NBA title throughout the year, with a league-best +400 odds on Tipico Sportsbook just as recent as Wednesday. But that was largely due to the potential of Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving taking the court together.

That hasn’t happened much, however, after Irving’s vaccination status left him unavailable early in the season and then available for just road games once the team welcomed him back. And now, Durant is out with an injury.

The potential of that group was about what they could do offensively. Adding Simmons subtracts a little of that but not much. Harden is in the midst of one of the worst seasons of his career. He’s shooting a career-worst 33% from three and his 42% from the field is the second-lowest of his career. He’s averaging 22.5 points per game.

They’re replacing that production with a player who hasn’t scored as proficiently as Harden in his career, but can still make plays as the main initiator on offense and can, perhaps, make up the difference on defense. Simmons hasn’t played since the Sixers were eliminated last postseason, but he’s still a guy who averages about 16 points, eight rebounds, eight assists and two steals for his career.

Look for Simmons to regularly hit the over on his assist numbers with the shooters he’ll be surrounded by—including Curry, Irving Patty Mills and Durant, once he returns from injury. And those players’ could see an uptick in their three-point numbers. Simmons’ impact may not be immediately felt until the Nets are at full strength, but he keeps the Nets (+450) in the conversation for a championship.

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