Following a monster year for the S&P 500 in 2023, investors might expect some bonanza profit growth. Not so from Tesla.
The much-watched electric vehicle maker is on deck to report fourth quarter profit results Jan. 24. But analysts expect a surprisingly poor period, especially compared with giant growth from other S&P 500 big-caps like Amazon.com. Analysts think Tesla's adjusted profit per share will drop 38.2% during the period.
If that's right, it means Tesla's fourth-quarter profit growth results will be the 434th lowest in the S&P 500. And that's a point worth noting, as it's the ninth most important holding in the S&P 500 in terms of market value.
Sizing Up Tesla's Profit In The S&P 500
Coming off the stock's 102% jump in 2023, analysts might be looking for big things from Tesla. But the fourth quarter isn't likely to deliver, analysts say.
The car company's forecast 38.2% profit growth in the quarter is miles behind the leaders. Amazon.com's growth is the one to beat, with analysts calling for a 2,540% growth rate. No other S&P 500 company comes close. And all told, the online retailer is expected to make $8.4 billion during the fourth quarter, ranking it ninth in the S&P 500 in terms of sheer profit.
Chipmaker Micron Technology ranks next to dead last in terms of the amount of profit it's expected to make in the fourth quarter. But even it is seen growing faster than Tesla. The company is forecast to boost its bottom line by 2,424% in the fourth quarter.
| Company | Ticker | Sector | Rank Q4 EPS growth (2023 est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com | Consumer Discretionary | 1 | |
| Micron Technology | Information Technology | 2 | |
| Netflix | Communication Services | 3 | |
| Constellation Energy | Utilities | 4 | |
| NRG Energy | Utilities | 5 | |
| Nvidia | Information Technology | 6 | |
| Intel | Information Technology | 7 | |
| Healthpeak Properties | Real Estate | 8 | |
| Meta Platforms | Communication Services | 9 | |
| Brown-Forman | Consumer Staples | 10 | |
| Tesla | Consumer Discretionary | 434 |
Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence, IBD
How Tesla's Profit Compares By Sheer Size
If Tesla's profit growth rate isn't all that impressive, what about the size of the profit it brings in? It's not that amazing either.
If Tesla ends up making $2.6 billion in the quarter as analysts predict, it would rank just 30th in the S&P 500 in terms of total profit. Apple, the S&P 500's most profitable company, is seen making $32.7 billion just in the fourth quarter. That's 1,149% more than Tesla is seen making. Microsoft is on deck to be the second-most profitable company in the quarter making $20.6 billion.
That's not to say Tesla's accomplishments aren't impressive. But when it comes to the bottom line, the fourth quarter isn't likely to turn heads like its vehicles often do.
Most Profitable S&P 500 Companies
Based on fourth-quarter 2023 estimates
| Company | Ticker | Sector | Rank Q4 net income (2023 est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | Information Technology | 1 | |
| Microsoft | Information Technology | 2 | |
| Alphabet | Communication Services | 3 | |
| Meta Platforms | Communication Services | 4 | |
| Nvidia | Information Technology | 5 | |
| JPMorgan Chase | Financials | 6 | |
| Berkshire Hathaway | Financials | 7 | |
| Exxon Mobil | Energy | 8 | |
| Amazon.com | Consumer Discretionary | 9 | |
| Chevron | Energy | 10 | |
| Tesla | Consumer Discretionary | 30 |
