Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- How 2024’s presidential election timeline compares to 2020 and 2016
- President Joe Biden ends January with a 43% approval rating, unchanged from last month
- #FridayTrivia: How many governors have delivered State of the State addresses so far?
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How 2024’s presidential election timeline compares to 2020 and 2016
On Jan. 31, The Post and Courier’s Schuyler Kopf reported that former South Carolina Governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (R) is expected to announce her presidential campaign on Feb. 15. If Haley does, she’d join former President Donald Trump (R)—who announced his candidacy last November—as the second noteworthy candidate in the Republican primary field.
On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden (D) has not yet announced whether he intends to run for a second term.
If history is any indication, the bulk of 2024 announcements will likely occur in the next few months. In the 2020 cycle, 87% (27) of the noteworthy candidates announced their campaigns by June 2019. And in the 2016 cycle, 77% (17) had by that time in 2015.
We define noteworthy candidates as:
- Current or former elected officials at the federal or state level or mayor of a city with a population of 100,000 or more;
- Those who meet either the fundraising or polling thresholds used to determine debate participation; or,
- Those who have qualified for the ballot in at least 15 states.
Looking back at the 2020 election cycle, by Feb. 3, 2019, ten noteworthy candidates had announced their campaigns. U.S. Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D) and Bernie Sanders (I) would join the field in the following weeks. Joe Biden (D) didn’t announce his candidacy until April 25.
In the 2016 election cycle, no noteworthy candidates had announced their campaigns by Feb. 3, 2015. Unlike the 2020 cycle, then-incumbent President Barack Obama (D) was term-limited and could not run for re-election.
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) was the first noteworthy candidate to announce his campaign in the 2016 cycle, doing so on March 23, 2015. The eventual Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton (D), announced her campaign on April 12, 2015. Trump, the eventual Republican nominee, announced his on June 16, 2015.
President Joe Biden ends January with a 43% approval rating, unchanged from last month
At the end of January, approval polling averages showed President Joe Biden (D) with a 43% approval rating. Fifty-two percent of voters disapproved of his performance.
Biden’s approval rating at the end of January remains unchanged from December. Throughout January, Biden’s rating fluctuated between 43 and 44%.
Biden’s lowest approval rating was 38% on July 27, 2022. His highest was 55% on May 26, 2021.
January also marks the end of the new 118th Congress’ first month. As of Jan. 31, Congressional approval was at 27%, with 58% disapproving. The highest approval rating for the 117th Congress was 36% on July 16, 2021, and the lowest was 14% on Jan. 26, 2022.
Compared to this point in former President Donald Trump’s (R) term in office (Jan. 31, 2019), presidential approval was two points lower at 41%, and congressional approval was nine points lower at 18%.
We calculate these approval figures every weekday by taking an average of polls conducted over the preceding 30 days. In addition to the average, we show every poll included in our calculations side-by-side to paint a clearer picture of public opinion than one individual poll can provide.
#FridayTrivia: How many governors have delivered State of the State addresses so far?
In Wednesday’s Brew, we brought you an update on this year’s round of State of the State addresses. Every state constitution requires that the governor give an annual (or regular) report to the legislature on the state’s condition. This is typically in the form of a State of the State address, where the governor delivers the update to all legislators at the state capitol.
As of Jan. 29, how many governors have delivered State of the State addresses?
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