The Houston Texans are free and clear to beat the Indianapolis Colts in Week 18 with no consequence to securing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft.
Wrong.
Incidentally the tie with Indianapolis from Week 1 is what complicates matters for Houston as they finish their regular season Sunday afternoon at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Ties count as half-wins, half-losses in the NFL, which is why it was always a misnomer to say the Texans “didn’t win” in Week 1. They half-won. Houston’s winning percentage was never .000 at any point in 2022 — unlike the Las Vegas Raiders, for example.
The half-win can be helpful when undoing a tiebreaker that a team may have your club. It can provide a niggling feeling going into the last week of a dismal regular season where the No. 1 pick is on the horizon.
The only team remaining to steal the No. 1 overall pick from the Texans are the Chicago Bears. For the sake of argument, let’s say the Colts beat the Texans in Week 1. Houston would be 2-14 going into their rematch with Indianapolis. They could beat the Colts, finish 3-14, and who cares what happened in the Bears versus Minnesota Vikings tilt. Chicago’s win over the Texans in Week 3 is the “tiebreaker” that would give Houston the No. 1 overall pick because they would have a worse record, even though both clubs finished 3-14.
However, the half-win from Week 1 would give Houston a 3.5-14 record, if they won, to the Bears’ 3-13, presuming Chicago loses to a Minnesota team that is still very much fighting for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
For the sake of giving general manager Nick Caserio the best assets to complete the rebuild, a loss to the Colts may be the best thing for the long-term. It would be highly unlikely that the Bears beat the Vikings in Week 18.
