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Newcastle Herald
Newcastle Herald

Hot, dry spell not expected to dampen storm season

The State Emergency Service is not expecting a significant let-up in storm activity amid an anticipated hot and dry end to 2023 and start of 2024.

The SES is urging residents to be prepared for damage and have a plan in place ahead of the beginning of the annual storm season, which runs from October to March.

The senior ranks of the Hunter SES will speak publicly on Tuesday to launch an awareness program regarding storm season, following deep rumblings and lightning across parts of the region on Monday night.

Storm clouds build over Nobbys in August, 2023. Picture by Peter Lorimer

NSW SES Commissioner Carlene York said communities should not be complacent.

"Throughout storm season severe weather, such as flooding due to isolated heavy rainfall, strong wind events and damaging hail, can all have significant impacts on communities," she said.

"Last storm season our volunteers responded to more than 14,000 storm-related jobs throughout NSW. We are urging the community to get prepared by undertaking some simple activities around the house.

"Clean your gutters, downpipes and drains, secure and put away any loose items around your backyard and balcony, and trim trees and branches that could fall onto your home."

Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Hugh McDowell said the long-range forecast showed that NSW could expect much less rainfall than last year and lower than median rainfall through spring.

"There is also a very high chance of daytime maximum and overnight minimum temperatures being higher than usual," he said.

"Spring rainfall is likely to be suppressed across NSW by a developing El Nino and Positive Indian Ocean Dipole.

"Whilst these two climate drivers can reduce overall rainfall their influence on severe storms is less pronounced. We can expect the number of severe storms to be close to historical averages this year."

Spring is the peak time for severe thunderstorms along Australia's east coast. East Coast Lows can also bring storms in early spring, increasing the risk of hail, damaging winds and flash flooding.

Mr McDowell said the overall flood risk has been assessed as close to average.

"Whilst the spring outlook is drier and warming, severe storms can bring significant rainfall in short periods, so flood risks remain for some catchments."

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