Like most teams, the Houston Rockets aren’t projected to have financial room beneath the NBA’s salary cap in the 2024 offseason. But, they do have a number of expiring contracts to potentially make the salary matching math work on trades, if a target is available.
With that in mind, there’s been a trend in recent years of star players opting in for the final year of existing contracts to force a trade to a desired destination. In this way, those with player options can use the threat of unrestricted free agency (if they opt out, they can potentially leave their current team for no compensation) while expanding any potential list of suitors beyond teams with cap room.
While free agents can reach sign-and-trade agreements, those are generally more prohibitive than opt-in-and-trade scenarios. For example, if a team is over the luxury-tax apron, it cannot receive a player in a sign-and-trade, according to the NBA’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Moreover, any team that receives a player in a sign-and-trade can’t cross the apron at any point in that league year.
Thus, leveraging a trade after opting into the final year of an existing contract offers more options. Among numerous examples, that method is how James Harden eventually forced his way from the Philadelphia 76ers to the Los Angeles Clippers in 2023, and it’s how Chris Paul moved from the Clippers to the Rockets in 2017.
So, could nine-time All-Star Paul George — widely viewed as one of the top free agents on the potential 2024 market — pull off the same move by opting into the final year (at $48.8 million) of his existing contract with the Clippers before leveraging a move elsewhere?
It’s at least possible for George and the aging Clippers, who had a disappointing exit from the first round of the 2024 playoffs. And according to Michael Scotto, league insider for HoopsHype, the young and improving Rockets are among a handful of teams that could potentially fit as a George destination. He writes:
George could also have a larger market than only teams with cap space this summer. Theoretically, George could opt into his contract and be traded with the understanding he’d work out a new deal, which would open up possibilities for teams like the Kings, Heat, Rockets, Mavericks, and others looking to acquire another star to fortify their championship contending chances going into next season.
Reporting on free agency for Paul George and James Harden, the futures of coach Ty Lue and Clippers management, PJ Tucker’s player option, and more on @hoopshype. https://t.co/XaTl4tSqFn
— Michael Scotto (@MikeAScotto) May 4, 2024
To accept George’s $48.8 million salary in such a scenario, Houston would have to send out something in the range of $40 million in salary to the Clippers. However, that could be accomplished between Dillon Brooks — who makes $22.6 million and could theoretically replace George as a wing starter in Los Angeles — along with the expiring salaries of two players among Jock Landale ($8.0 million), Jeff Green ($9.6 million), and Jae’Sean Tate ($7.1 million).
Because NBA rosters can be temporarily expanded in the offseason to fit up to 21 players, executing a 3-for-1 or 4-for-1 trade is significantly easier than it is during each regular season.
The problem is, Brooks and expiring contracts probably isn’t enough from a value perspective for the Clippers to trade a star player like George. So, the Rockets would likely have to add further sweetener in the form of a talented young player and/or future draft assets.
With that in mind, would the Rockets (41-41) — who would be better with George, but probably not an immediate title contender — be willing to trade enough assets to make it work for the Clippers? In theory, Houston might be more willing to trade quality assets if George agreed to a contract extension. But, how many years and dollars would a developing team like the Rockets commit to a 34-year-old — and is it worth it, if the contending window isn’t yet open?
If George wanted to play in Houston badly enough (it appears he’s on good terms with Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun), to the point where he would effectively give the Clippers a one-team preferred trade list and otherwise threaten to leave as an unrestricted free agent for no compensation, that could reduce the cost to a manageable level. But, would George be willing to go to extreme lengths for a team that doesn’t yet appear to be a true contender?
All in all, it’s doubtful that all of the needed dominos will line up. But it’s an intriguing scenario to ponder and evaluate as decisions on team and player options are made throughout the month of June.
George averaged 22.6 points (47.1% FG, 41.3% on 3-pointers), 5.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game last season. On paper, he is a clear short-term upgrade relative to Brooks, who is a good defensive player but much more limited as a scorer and shooter. However, the question for the Rockets is whether that short-term bump is worth the asset premium that would likely be required to make it all work.
