The final trading week of 2024 arrives with shortened holiday hours and potentially thin trading volumes. The S&P 500 ($SPX) (SPY) continues to trade near all-time highs as investors position themselves for the new year. This week could see increased volatility as fund managers engage in window dressing - adjusting their portfolios for year-end statements - while other market participants complete their tax-loss harvesting trades before year-end.
This holiday-shortened week brings several economic releases that could still move markets despite lower trading volumes. The combination of thin liquidity and economic data could create some interesting market dynamics.
Here are 5 things to watch this week in the Market.
Consumer Confidence
Monday at 10 am brings the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report for December. With recent retail sales data showing mixed signals about consumer spending, this report could provide insight into consumer sentiment heading into 2025. A significant beat could suggest continued economic resilience, while a miss might raise concerns about consumer spending patterns and economic growth.
Housing Data
Tuesday at 10 am, New Home Sales for November will be released. The housing market has been particularly sensitive to interest rates throughout 2024, and this report could offer insight into how the sector is adapting to the current rate environment. With mortgage rates having retreated from recent highs, any surprise in new home sales could impact homebuilder stocks and related sectors.
Durable Goods Orders
Tuesday morning at 8:30 am brings the Durable Goods Orders report for November. This key measure of business investment and manufacturing sector health could provide clues about economic momentum heading into 2025. A strong report might suggest business confidence, while weakness could raise concerns about corporate spending and economic growth.
Holiday Trading Schedule
Markets will close early at 1 pm on Tuesday for Christmas Eve and remain closed on Wednesday for Christmas Day. These shortened sessions often bring lower trading volumes which can lead to increased volatility if significant news breaks. Traders should be mindful of potentially wider spreads and more erratic price movements during these thin trading conditions.
Initial Jobless Claims
Thursday's Initial Jobless Claims report takes on added significance as one of the few major data points in this holiday week. Recent weeks have shown some volatility in claims numbers, and with reduced trading volumes, any surprise in this data could have an outsized impact on market movement.
Best of luck this week and don't forget to check out my daily options article.
