Tasmania has finally realised its AFL dream, but it's no secret that acquiring the 19th licence has come at quite a cost.
The bulk of that cost is tied up in a new Macquarie Point stadium that's expected to sting taxpayers upwards of $750 million.
Construction of the stadium was a condition of the licence from the AFL — and a large number of punters are not happy about that.
So, why does Tasmania's new team require a brand new, expensive, waterfront stadium when AFL fixtures have been staged 3 kilometres away at Bellerive Oval for more than a decade?
The question is not a new one and the answers are a little more complex than you might think.
Why not Bellerive?
In 2019, the Tasmanian AFL taskforce went about answering the stadium question as part of its business case for a team.
This business case — released in November of that year — was the document upon which tripartisan political support of a new club was based and it detailed why Bellerive Oval would be unable to support a new AFL club in the long term.
It used modelling undertaken by sports and entertainment analytics firm GEMBA to forecast a membership base of 38,000 in the team's first year and average attendance of 18,400 for the new team.
"Without an upgrade, [Bellerive Oval's] existing capacity [19,000] would be financially impactful on the club and, possibly, the Tasmanian economy, given the level of reserved seating required to service the club's anticipated membership," it said.
"We are firmly of the view that, to Hobart's detriment, [Bellerive Oval] is likely to be sub-optimal for a Tasmanian AFL side to play the stronger-drawing mainland teams."
The taskforce — headed up by former Virgin Australia boss Brett Godfrey — eventually came to the conclusion that "current venue capacity status is insufficient to support the required model of success for a sustainable Tasmanian AFL licence".
It also concluded that "stadia investment will demand a critical commitment from federal and state government to provide world-class facilities for playing, attendance and broadcast standards".
The taskforce also raised the notion of a new, roofed stadium at Macquarie Point and compared it to the redeveloped Adelaide Oval.
In his review of the business case, independent former AFL commissioner Colin Carter said that "the taskforce correctly argued that a 'clean' stadium was important".
Don't the Roos play AFL fixtures at Bellerive?
So if it's good enough for North Melbourne, it should be enough for team Tassie?
It's true, North Melbourne has played games at the venue for more than 10 years and is slated to continue doing so for another two seasons.
However, for the Kangaroos, Bellerive is a secondary home ground, reserved for matches against mostly low-drawing clubs that struggle to fill their primary home ground of Docklands in Melbourne.
Crowds for North Melbourne games at Bellerive have waned, with average attendance dipping from 12,620 in 2012 to 7,141 last year.
The form of the Roos can be partly to blame for the slump, but former Bellerive Oval general manager of venue Stephen McMullen said the attractiveness of Bellerive as a football venue was also on the slide.
"If you consider the 'hill' side of the ground, there were no toilets put on that eastern side of the ground," he said.
"In terms of catering requirements in the [David Boon stand], you'd have 6,000 people and there's one small commercial kitchen to cater for the masses."
For a new Tasmanian club, without a new arena, Bellerive would be its primary home ground in the south.
Its capacity would be the lowest in the competition and, by the time of the team's debut, the newest parts of the ground would be 13 years old.
There are also commercial realities that outgoing AFL boss Gillon McLachlan says cannot be realised at Bellerive.
"The volume needs to be higher to get the money, and the percentage of corporate seats needs to be higher to get the yield," he said in February.
"[Bellerive] is not Optus [Perth], or Adelaide Oval or, frankly, the MCG or Marvel [Docklands].
"We play in a competition of relativities and, if you want people to travel, they now expect the best."
Why not re-develop Bellerive at a fraction of the cost of Mac Point?
A 2022 Tasmanian government-commissioned site selection report found an increase in the footprint of Bellerive Oval would encroach onto nearby residential streets.
"It's a small ground, smaller than the SCG. So, to try and develop anything on the eastern side, the Church Street side, there's a very narrow area between the oval itself and the actual street," McMullen said.
"There was a design a number of years ago that had grandstand seating around the hill that links up to the members, but car parking was still a major issue and that's not taking into account what you're doing with transport and car parks.
"To do that, it'd be hundreds and hundreds of millions, and [we'd be] never [likely to] get a return on investment that a new precinct might."
Technical issues abound with Bellerive, too, particularly around noise in a residential area.
"The sound requirement set by the EPA (Environment Protection Agency) is 68 decibels from the closest residence," McMullen said.
"To put that in perspective, we had Nitro Circus [motorcycle event] which had speakers like a concert, and that was 90 decibels. So, to host a concert, you couldn't do it at Bellerive."
Accessibility and facilities for broadcasting, and floodlighting, also present an issue.
"You're only allowed 10 events a year where you can run full broadcast lighting," McMullen said.
"So, if you host five Big Bash games, and there's going to be eight games of football, even if it's a 5pm twilight match, that counts as an event."
Game day traffic management plans are also required for AFL fixtures, as large numbers of cars and foot traffic attempt to enter and exit the area.
So, they can't play AFL at Bellerive, but can at York Park?
A refurbishment of Launceston's York Park might be an easier proposition.
It is able to be expanded beyond its current footprint, while access to the venue is easier because it is located directly next to an arterial road.
The stadiums locale is also preferable, being a short walk from the Launceston CBD.
That area has been master planned too.
A 2021 future directions plan for the area commissioned by the Launceston City Council — and conducted by consultants KPMG — recommended an upgrade to 27,500 seats and the eventual inclusion of an indoor centre capable of hosting NBL fixtures.
The state and federal governments have chipped in $130m to kick off stages 1 and 2 of the redevelopment.
OK, Bellerive might not be the best option. But why Mac Point?
The Tasmanian government has earmarked Macquarie Point as its preferred location because it's selling the stadium as a multi-purpose arena, close to the CBD.
It's a nine-hectare site on reclaimed land, within a 15-minute walk to 90 per cent of Hobart's hotel rooms, according to the AFL task force's research.
The government says its decision to base an AFL club there will serve as a trigger to re-develop the contentious site — and it has just been granted almost a quarter of a billion dollars of federal money to do just that.
"Bellerive is just not suitable, it's constrained when it comes to transport," Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff says.
"What Macquarie Point will do is bring all those transport links, that infrastructure, such as the northern transit corridor, the ferries at Bellerive, bring it all together and harness the opportunities."
However, given it must satisfy the AFL's licence demand of a new stadium, and also the federal government's stipulations around housing and other ventures in order for the money to flow, just how the Tasmanian government gets bang for its buck — and gets everything done on time and on budget — remains to be seen.
How do we know somewhere else isn't a better call?
Of course, some would argue, the government and AFL would say these things: They want a new stadium.
How do we know, for sure, that Bellerive, or somewhere else, isn't a better, cheaper call?
It's a valid question and one that Hobart Lord Mayor Anna Reynolds wants answered.
She has reservations about a new build at Macquarie Point and, while sceptical about a new stadium, her main concern is about proper process around the suitability of Bellerive Oval.
"Normally, if it's good infrastructure planning, you'd do a really in-depth, dispassionate and independent look at the costs and benefits of a range of options," Ms Reynolds said.
"The only analysis I've seen are throwaway lines from people saying, 'it's a residential area', and 'it's hard to access' and that's not really adequate when we're talking about the intense of investment required for a new build and, in a sense, the inefficiency of a new build compared to an upgrade of [an existing] facility.
"If they come to the point where they're completely out of the question because of X, Y and Z, that would be good to see, but I haven't seen something like that."
Ms Reynolds says there may be solutions to traffic congestion and transport around the ground, but that these have not been properly investigated.
"Maybe, we could make [Bellerive Oval] more accessible with an organised event transport system that is consistent, predictable and affordable," she said.
"I'd also like to explore the idea of a destination ferry terminal closer to the Bellerive stadium so [that] travel to Bellerive could be easier."
It looks like Bellerive might not get a look in. What happens to it now?
Bellerive Oval is likely to still play an important sporting role.
In Western Australia, the WACA ground has been retained as the home of domestic cricket in the state, despite the construction of the new Perth Stadium.
And there's no reason why Bellerive — with its highly regarded centre wicket and traditional 'hill' area — cannot maintain this status in Hobart.
Popular and higher-drawing Big Bash League games will almost certainly be played at the new Mac Point arena, but Sheffield Shield, domestic one-day and WNCL games will probably remain at Bellerive.
The domestic teams will also continue to train there.
With the introduction of Tasmanian VFL and VFLW football clubs, Bellerive could serve as a solid option for these fixtures, where crowds will be significantly lower and easier to manage, compared to AFL games at Macquarie Point.
Local football will also continue to be played at Bellerive.
