If Parramatta lose to reigning champions Penrith in Thursday night's grand-final rematch, history says they will have a one in 115 chance of being crowned NRL premiers in 2023.
Heading into round four, Parramatta have slumped to a 0-3 record after losses to 2022 finalists Melbourne and Canberra, and resurgent Manly.
Thursday's clash at CommBank Stadium presents the Eels with not only a chance to kickstart their season and avenge last year's grand-final heartbreak, but to avoid falling further behind on their quest to go one better in 2023.
In 115 previous seasons of Australian first-grade rugby league, only once has a side bounced back from a 0-4 start and gone on to win the premiership. And that was 90 years ago.
Like this year's Eels, the Newtown Jets struggled to overcome a tough draw early in the 1933 season, falling to the top three teams from the previous year inside three weeks.
After one more loss to easybeats Sydney University, the Jets won 10 of their next 11 games to qualify for the grand final, which they won after a tight first half against St George.
But working in the 1933 Jets' favour was the fact Kangaroos representatives set sail for a tour of England four weeks into the season, decimating Newtown's rivals on the road to the grand final.
To date, the 1933 Jets are the only rugby league premiers who needed to recover from a winless opening four weeks in order to taste grand final glory.
Just one other side has started the season 0-4 and qualified for the top four - the 2021 Manly Sea Eagles, who rocketed up the ladder after Tom Trbojevic returned from injury and enjoyed one of the best individual seasons in recent memory.
Even if they are able to upset the Panthers, the Eels' outlook is far from rosy - only two other sides have started the season at 0-3 and won the grand final - South Sydney in 1953 and North Queensland in 2015.
"Obviously their back probably feels up against the wall a bit," Panthers second-rower Luke Garner said of Parramatta.
"They're as dangerous as ever.
"They've got some great new additions to their team and Matto (Ryan Matterson) coming back (from suspension) and whatnot. We expect them to be a strong side."
Penrith coach Ivan Cleary looked forward to another chance to come up against the Eels, who are one of only two NRL sides to have scored multiple wins over the Panthers since their rich vein of form began at the start of 2020.
"I just think there's a lot of history there," Cleary said of the western Sydney rivalry.
"We've had some good battles over the last few years. They're a great club, they've got some great players in that team."
