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Short-seller Hindenburg Research has officially closed its doors, marking the end of an era that shook markets globally. Founded by Nate Anderson in 2017, the firm gained notoriety for exposing fraud at companies like Nikola (NKLA), SmileDirectClub, and India’s Adani Enterprises. Over its controversial tenure, Hindenburg's reports often sent stocks into freefall, drawing both ire and admiration from investors.
Among its most significant recent targets was Super Micro Computer (SMCI), a data center hardware company once touted as a challenger to industry behemoth Nvidia (NVDA). In mid-2024, Hindenburg alleged that SMCI engaged in dubious accounting practices, questionable related-party transactions, and even violations of U.S. export bans, casting a shadow over the company’s credibility.
The fallout was swift - SMCI plunged by double-digits overnight and continued its downward spiral, erasing billions in market value. However, in a surprising twist, the stock recently rallied on news of Hindenburg’s closure despite SMCI’s ongoing struggles, including the absence of a scheduled earnings report.
With these developments in mind, let’s dive deeper into whether SMCI’s stock now presents a compelling investment opportunity or remains fraught with risk.
About Super Micro Computer Stock
Super Micro Computer (SMCI), founded in 1993 and based in San Jose, California, specializes in cutting-edge server and storage solutions. Serving enterprise data centers and cloud leaders, SMCI is a cornerstone of modern tech infrastructure with a $18.1 billion market cap.
Super Micro’s shares have been caught in a whirlwind. After plunging to a low of $17.25 on Nov. 15 amid Nasdaq delisting fears, the stock sits 73.6% below its 52-week high, weighed down by a Hindenburg report alleging misconduct and a delayed 10-K filing. Over the past six months alone, SMCI tumbled 59.3%.
However, the latest twist was Hindenburg Research’s closure, which ignited a rally and fueled hopes of short positions unwinding. While optimism brews, SMCI faces a steep climb to regain its former glory.
From a valuation standpoint, Super Micro trades currently at a trailing price-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.20x, which is a discount to the tech sector median and historical average.
SMCI’s Crash, Controversy, and Comeback
In 2024, Super Micro Computer found itself in Hindenburg’s crosshairs. On Aug. 27, the firm released a scathing report accusing SMCI of accounting irregularities, shady dealings with related parties, and violations of U.S. export laws. The allegations, which included exporting restricted components to Iran and Russia, painted SMCI as a repeat offender plagued by governance issues and waning competitiveness.
The impact was immediate and brutal. SMCI, trading at $54.76 on the day of the report, plummeted by 19% within a day, closing at $44.35. Over the following months, the fallout deepened, with the stock tumbling to $17.25 - a staggering 68.5% decline from its pre-report value.
As SMCI grappled with the aftermath, Hindenburg itself made headlines in January 2025 when Anderson announced the firm’s closure due to personal reasons. The announcement sparked a brief rally in SMCI. Yet uncertainty lingers. SMCI has yet to announce its next earnings date, leaving investors guessing about its financial health and long-term viability.
Super Micro Dips on Q4 Earnings Miss
Super Micro stumbled sharply after its fiscal Q4 earnings on Aug. 6, the last time it officially reported results, with its stock plunging over 20%. While revenue soared 143.6% year-over-year to $5.31 billion, exceeding expectations, an EPS miss at $5.51 and a drop in gross margins to 11.2% from 17% fueled investor unease. In August, the company forecast revenue between $6 billion and $7 billion for its fiscal first quarter, and revenue between $26 billion and $30 billion for the full fiscal year. It also forecast adjusted earnings per share between $6.69 and $8.27.
The company shared preliminary results in November, with net sales expected between $5.9 billion and $6 billion, down from its August forecast.
However, the company still has not scheduled an earnings date, and has until Feb. 25 to make key filings or risk Nasdaq delisting.
What Do Analysts Expect for Super Micro Stock?
Overall, SMCI has a consensus rating of “Hold,” slipping from the “Moderate Buy” rating overall. Out of 13 analysts, two rate the AI stock as a “Strong Buy,” one advises a “Moderate Buy,” eight analysts are playing it safe with a “Hold,” and two recommend a “Strong Sell.”
The mean price target of $49.21 signals 51.6% upside. Until clarity emerges, investors must balance opportunity and caution, navigating SMCI’s potential with an eye on its unresolved challenges.
