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Edinburgh Live
Edinburgh Live
National
Kris Gourlay

Highly infectious ‘New York’ Covid variant spikes in Scotland with 'new wave' fears

A highly infectious Covid-19 variant that is dominating America is on the rise in Scotland. Experts are fearing that the new contagious strain, known as BA 2.12.1, could be the most infectious to date.

It comes days after several Edinburgh University experts warned that the country is experiencing a new wave of the virus, as well as it being said that it is impossible to judge just how many confirmed cases there are in the country, due to the easing off testing.

Experts are now fearing that the new variant has a 27 per cent growth advantage over BA.2. Although it is thought to be more contagious, early indications are that it does not cause more severe symptoms than previous versions.

READ MORE: Edinburgh schools ranked from best to worst in new Times league table

The Scottish Sun report that in US states such as New York and New Jersey, the BA.2 subvariant is now responsible for over 80 per cent of infections - resulting in it being confirmed as America's dominant Covid variant in May.

Now it is believed to be responsible for a surge in cases in Scotland. Professor Rowland Kao, chair of veterinary epidemiology and data science at Edinburgh University, told The Herald: "It seems to be increasing more in Scotland than in England and Wales - why, we don't know.

"It looks like [BA.2.12.1] may explain the faster increase infections in Scotland, because the overall increase is steeper than in England and Wales and the 'BA.2-compatible' cases are going up faster here, whereas in England they're sort of stable.

"What's happening in Scotland is that [BA.2.12.1] is expanding more rapidly than in the south, for whatever reason", he added. The number of people in hospital with Covid in Scotland is up 27 per cent since the end of May.

And the Office for National Statistics estimated some 176,900 \u0097 one in 30 \u0097 Scots got the virus in the week ending June 11. This is the highest in the UK compared to one in 50 in England and one in 45 in Wales and Northern Ireland.

Prof Kao believes the country's early success with the vaccination programme could "ironically" be a factor. He added: "Our residual immunity here may be different. Broadly speaking, we probably did slightly better vaccination-wise - in that we got boosters out more quickly - and ironically, that could mean we have less residual immunity now.

"Covid also spreads better in deprived areas, so there could be an element of greater circulation here in those areas." But he added: "Broadly speaking they're all relatively mild compared to [Delta] so it's nothing to worry about from that point of view.

"Except that the longer these things keep circulating, the worse off we are in so many other ways." Nicola Sturgeon's pandemic advisors, Professor Devi Sridhar, also called for Scottish adults to be given booster doses in the autumn after warning that another wave is on its way.

The Edinburgh Uni academic said she's "concerned" about a rise in cases come autumn.

She said: "Recent pre-print on COVID re-infections basically says that re-infection (having COVID twice) is worse than once.

"So yes, a disease to try to avoid. Although given over 90% of people estimated to have had COVID at least once in UK, obviously hard to avoid. Even for those being cautious.

"I’m concerned about the Autumn/Winter- we know immunity from vaccine/infection wanes. Another wave in winter looks likely.

"In my honest opinion, Omicron-specific boosters should be rolled out by age/health status."

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