![The skyline of Berlin, with the Berlin Cathedral and the TV Tower.](https://media.guim.co.uk/5e76f9e118fc3fed75d3f58deeb8a931461ad643/0_148_4256_2554/1000.jpg)
Closing post
Time to wrap up – here’s today’s main stories:
Door and window seller Safestyle has fallen into administration, with the loss of around 680 jobs.
Germany has dropped halfway into recession, after GDP shrank by 0.1% in the last quarter.
UK mortgage approvals have fallen, as high interest rates hit demand for home loans.
Britain’s FTSE 100 has rebounded today, after hitting its lowest level since August on Friday.
The blue-chip share index is up 41 points, or 0.57%, at 7332 points.
Full story; Around 680 Safestyle workers lose jobs after window firm enters administration
Administrators for Safestyle have said the business has made around 680 of its workers redundant after it fell into administration, PA Media report.
Interpath Advisory said around 70 of the door and window maker’s 750 employees would be kept on in the short term to help wind down the business.
It comes after Safestyle said on Friday it intended to appoint administrators after failing to find a buyer.
The Bradford-headquartered business has a manufacturing site in Wombwell, near Barnsley and 42 branches and depots across the country.
The company failed after facing a series of pressures, including runaway inflation and poor consumer confidence, administrators said.
The unseasonably warm weather in September also dented demand for its products.
Safestyle suspended its shares from trading in London last Friday after it realised that a hoped-for rescue deal was unlikely to give shareholders any money back.
Later in the day the company said that even such a potential deal had proven impossible and the company was going to appoint administrators.
The company’s subsidiary HPAS and holding companies Style Group Holdings and Style Group UK concluded that they could not keep trading as a result.
Rick Harrison, managing director at Interpath Advisory, said:
“These are really challenging times for companies across the home improvement market.
“After seeing strong sales during the Covid lockdown periods, many companies are seeing trading being impacted by the cost-of-living crisis and soaring costs.”
He added:
“Unfortunately for Safestyle, and despite the tireless efforts of the management team over recent months, these challenges have proven too difficult to overcome.
“This will be particularly devastating for the company’s employees, as well as the many self-employed contractors who worked on behalf of the company.
“Our immediate priority will be to provide support to those impacted by redundancy, including supporting them in making claims to the Redundancy Payments Service where relevant.”
Shares in Meta have jumped over 2% after it announced plans today to offer users in Europe a subscription plan to use Facebook and Instagram without advertisements.
The monthly subscription plans for users in the EU, European Economic Area and Switzerland, will cost €9.99 for web users, while iOS and Android users will have to shell out €12.99 a month.
The move could help the company comply with the European Union regulations, which will curb Meta’s ability to personalize ads for users without their consent.
680 job losses as door and window seller Safestyle enters administration
Around 680 workers at door and window seller Safestyle have been made redundant after the business fell into administration, administrators at Interpath Advisory said.
The GMB union has said that Safestyle workers were “completely let down by mismanagement from the very top of the business”.
Lee Parkinson, GMB Organiser added:
“More than 600 workers have been cruelly cut off from work, weeks before Christmas, with no guarantee that they will even get last week’s pay-check.
“The impact of this closure upon the community of Barnsley cannot be overstated. It is simply devastating.
Updated
In New York, stocks have opened higher as markets shrug off some of their concerns over escalating conflict in the Middle East.
The Dow Jones industrial average has gained 309 points, or almost 1%, to 32,727, while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite is 1.15% higher.
The oil price has dipped today, though, with Brent crude dropping by 1.5% today to around $89 per barrel.
There’s a ‘risk-on’ mood in the markets today, at the start of a busy week which will see central bank decisions in the UK, US and Japan, plus inflation data in the eurozone tomorrow and the US jobs report on Friday.
Bob Savage, head of markets strategy and insights at BNY Mellon, says:
There is still mischief to be had across the tape as markets reset for year-end as October finishes into Halloween. The second phase of the Israel/Hamas war started over the weekend, but the worst-case escalations haven’t happened.
Today’s Bank of England Money and Credt report shows a drop in the amount of money in the economy, a worrying sign for economic growth.
The net flow of sterling money (known as M4ex) fell sharply to -£31.5 billion in September, from -£7.5 billion in August, the BoE reports.
💥 UK broad money is collapsing, which is consistent with a severe #recession and/or much sharper falls in #inflation than almost anyone is expecting... 👇
— Julian Jessop (@julianHjessop) October 30, 2023
This should be a key factor in the Bank of England's decisions this week, but so far has barely had a mention 🙄... (1/2) pic.twitter.com/U8MI5pE6Tk
Costas Milas, professor of finance at the University of Liverpool, tells us:
Divisia money 12-month growth recorded a new historical low of -9.8% in September. This should have very worrying implications for UK GDP since Divisia money growth is a very reliable predictor of future UK growth.
It should also have encouraging implications for inflation as I have explained in a recent piece for The Conversation. Inflation would most likely start dropping like a stone now...
All these should, in theory, mean no change in UK interest rates this week…
Here’s a handy chart showing how Germany’s economy has struggled over the last 18 months:
🇩🇪German output shrank in the third quarter — raising the risk that🇪🇺Europe’s largest economy is headed for a recession.
— Francesco Sassi (@Frank_Stones) October 30, 2023
GDP fell 0.1% from the previous three months, less than the 0.2% drop economists expected, citing a pullback in household spending. pic.twitter.com/OMbSO1qQUS
German inflation falls
Back in Germany, inflation has fallen this month as the cost of living squeeze in Europe’s largest economy eases.
Statistics body Destatis reports that the inflation rate in Germany is expected to be +3.8% in October 2023, the lowest level since August 2021, down from +4.5% a month earlier.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices are expected to remain unchanged compared to September.
Destatis says energy prices fell by 3.2% year-on-year, which had “a particularly dampening effect on the inflation rate.”
German core inflation - excluding food and energy - is expected to have fallen to 4.3%, from 4.6% in September.
On an EU-harmonised basis, the German inflation rate was even lower – just 3.0% in the year to October, down from 4.3% in September.
Faost food chain McDonalds has posted a 17% jump in revenues and net income in the last quarter, helped by price rises.
McDonalds has beaten Wall Street expectations by reporting an 8.8% increase in comparable sales in July-September.
Total revenues rose to $6.69bn, from $5.87bn the same quarter of 2022.
McDonalds says its US customers spent more, due to “strategic menu price increases”, while marketing campaigns also helped grow sales.
International growth was led by the UK, Germany and Canada, it adds.
The company has declared a 10% increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $1.67 per share.
Updated
Energy secretary: we'll name and shame fuel retailers ripping off motorists
The UK’s Energy Security Secretary, Claire Coutinho, has warned fuel retailers they will be named and shamed if they rip off motorists by making excessive profits from petrol and diesel sales.
Coutinho issued the warning amid reports that retailers are raking in profits at the expense of drivers.
She tweeted:
“Drivers should get a fair price at the pump.
“I’ve written to fuel retailers to make it clear they must pass on savings. I will not hesitate to call out retailers who rip off the public.”
Drivers should get a fair price at the pump.
— Claire Coutinho MP (@ClaireCoutinho) October 30, 2023
I’ve written to fuel retails to make it clear they must pass on savings.
I will not hesitate to call out retailers who rip off the public. pic.twitter.com/kKphBw4kSh
Her warning comes as the RAC urges the UK’s biggest fuel retailers to cut the price of petrol by at least 5p a litre to 150p to reflect their far lower wholesale costs.
Today’s figures, showing a drop in UK mortgage approvals and mortgage lending in September, suggest the decline in UK average house prices is set to continue deep into 2024.
So explains Cameron Misson, economist at Centre for Economics and Business Research, adding:
Indeed, recent data from HM Land Registry showed house prices grew by 0.2% on an annual basis in August, which marked a significant slowdown when compared to the 11.5% growth witnessed in the same month a year prior.
The effective interest rate paid on new mortgages ticked up by 19 basis points to 5.01%, partially impacted by volatility in bond markets in recent weeks.
Updated
HSBC’s surge in third quarter profits haven’t gone down well with MPs from the influential Treasury Committee, who earlier this year accused lenders of “profiteering” for failing to raise savings rates as quickly as mortgages charges.
While investors have largely been disappointed by banks’ net interest margins - either for an immediate or forecasted drop that suggests the gap between mortgage charges and savings payouts is narrowing - the committee claims lenders are still not doing enough.
Treasury Committee chair Harriett Baldwin said:
“The big four banks have been far too slow to reward savers through better rates on instant access savings accounts. The Treasury Committee summoned them in February to suggest they offer better rates.
They should have listened to our suggestion as there are signs that savvy consumers are switching for better rates elsewhere.
The figures published in the past week still show signs that the banks are trying to do as little as they can get away with to reward our constituents for saving. We will continue to press for individual and business savers to be rewarded. Meanwhile, savers should shop around for the best rate.”
Full story: High interest rates help double HSBC profits
HSBC will hand more than $3bn (£2.5bn) to shareholders, after higher interest rates helped to more than double quarterly profits, despite taking a financial hit on China’s property crisis.
The London-headquartered bank said it was launching the share buyback, and pay a dividend worth 10 cents a share, after what its chief executive, Noel Quinn, hailed as “three consecutive quarters of strong financial performance”.
The move came as HSBC revealed it had made $7.7bn in pre-tax profits between July and September. While it fell short of average analyst forecasts for $8.1bn, it was more than double the $3.2bn it made during the same period last year.
The profits were supported by a 15% rise in net interest income, which accounts for the difference between what it charges for loans and mortgages, against what it pays out to savers.
It helped offset the $1.1bn that HSBC put aside to cover potential defaults. That includes $500m linked to China’s struggling commercial property market, where HSBC – which makes the bulk of its profits in Asia – has a $13.6bn exposure.
More here:
Over in China, electric carmaker BYD has reported a surge in earnings.
BYD’s net profits swelled by 82%, year-on-year, to 10.41bn yuan (£1.18bn), while revenues grew 38.5%.
BYD, which is backed by the US investor Warren Buffett, is the biggest maker of electric cars worldwide after Tesla. Its jump in profits comes as China’s share of the European electric car market grows sharplly, more than doubling in less than two years.
World Bank warns oil price could soar to record $150 a barrel
Oil prices could soar to a record high of more than $150 a barrel if the war between Israel and Hamas leads to a repeat of the full-scale conflict in the Middle East witnessed 50 years ago, the World Bank has warned.
In the first major assessment of the economic risks of an escalation of the war beyond Gaza’s borders, the World Bank said there was a risk of the cost of crude entering “uncharted waters”.
A “large disruption” scenario comparable with the Arab oil boycott of the west in 1973 would create supply shortages that would lead to the price of a barrel of oil increasing from about $90 to between $140 and 157. The previous record – unadjusted for inflation – was $147 a barrel in 2008.
Here’s the full story:
UK mortgage approvals fall: what the experts say
Housing experts are concerned by today’s news that UK mortgage approvals for house purchases fell in September to 43,328, the lowest level for mortgage approvals since January 2023.
Anthony Codling, analyst at RBC Europe Limited, says:
The housing market appears to be catching a cold, and we do not expect November’s Autumn Statement to administer a booster jab.
It could be a cold and dark winter for the UK housing market. However, if CPI continues to fall allowing the Bank of England to reduce the Bank Rate, it might not be as dark or as cold as today’s headline figures suggest.
Thomas Pugh, economist at audit, tax and consulting firm RSM UK, predicts that further house price falls are on the way.
The drop in mortgage approvals from 45,400 in August to 43,300 in September, the lowest since January, combined with a net reduction of mortgage lending of £0.9bn is a response to the jump in interest rates over the last two years and suggests that house prices probably have further to fall. Admittedly, interest rates on new mortgages will probably drift down a little over the next few months now that interest rates seem to have peaked, but they will remain close to the highest level since the financial crisis. We still expect a peak to trough fall in house prices of a little under 10%.
Pugh also fears that the lagged effect of the huge rise interest rates that has already happened, combined with the risk of further rate rises could easily tip the economy into recession later this year or in early 2024.
Here’s a chart showing how the number of home-owners remortgaging their loans fell to the lowest since 1999 in September, to just over 20,600.
![A chart showing UK remortgaging rates](https://media.guim.co.uk/398ab7f159bc66f0fab7a54a091f5f0264996b2a/0_0_2340_732/1000.jpg)
Alice Haine, personal financeaAnalyst at Bestinvest, explains:
“Mortgage approvals continued to fall in September, dropping by almost 5% as high mortgage rates caused major affordability challenges for buyers, with continued cost-of-living pressures also making it harder for buyers to secure the homes they want.
Net approvals for remortgaging, which captures remortgaging with a different lender, also saw a rapid decline in September as more homeowners stuck with their existing lender rather than switch to a new provider to avoid affordability checks.
Capital Economics: A mild UK recession may already be underway
The drop in bank lending in September reported by the Bank of England today could be a sign that the UK is in a ‘mild recession’.
So warns Ashley Webb, UK Economist at Capital Economics, who fears the drag on lending and activity from higher interest rates is growing.
Webb told clients:
The further decline in bank lending in September will continue to weigh on activity, particularly in the housing market. This is consistent with our view that a mild recession may already be underway and it supports our view that the Bank of England will leave interest rates on hold at 5.25% on Thursday.
The net monthly change in mortgage lending fell in September, from +£1.1bn in August to -£0.9bn (i.e. repayments were greater than new loans), and the forward-looking indicator of mortgage approvals fell further, from 45,447 to 43,238 (CE 42,000, consensus 45,000). Excluding the pandemic, the latter remains the lowest level since January 2011.
The interest rate on newly drawn mortgages increased by another 19 basis points, from 4.82% to 5.01%. And with average quoted mortgage still elevated at 5.5% in September, we suspect that further weakness in housing activity and prices lies ahead.
This morning’s Bank of England data shows that the traditional autumn pick up in housing market activity failed to materialise this year.
So says Simon Gammon, managing partner at Knight Frank Finance, who adds:
Mortgage rates have eased to a plateau following a volatile year and it’s going to take some time for buyers to get to grips with what they can now afford. The effective interest rate on newly drawn mortgages rose to 5.01% during September, up from just 1.78% two years ago.
We could see some more, marginal cuts to mortgage rates before the end of the year if we see the headline rate of inflation dip into the 4% - 5% range. We’d expect five year fixed rate products of around 4.5% in that scenario, down from about 4.8% today. While that’s what many borrowers would consider expensive, it’s certainly better than the 6.5% five year fixed rates we had a little under a year ago. Trackers are the most popular products for now. Most borrowers are willing to risk an uptick in their outgoings if it means they can benefit from any interest rate cuts next year.
Many of the high street lenders published results this month and it’s clear they are all behind on their lending targets. Margins are already squeezed so we’re seeing banks tweak criteria or product ranges in order to be more generous to borrowers, whether that’s by assessing income more generously or introducing more higher loan-to-value products.”
Updated
UK remortgaging hits lowest since 1999
Back in the UK, the number of people remortaging their homes with a different lender has fallen to its lowest in almost 25 years.
New data from the Bank of England also shows a wider drop in activity in the mortgage market last month.
Net approvals for remortgaging – which only capture remortgaging with a different lender – fell from 25,100 in August to 20,600 in September.
That is the lowest level since January 1999 (when it was 18,300), and suggests that the jump in mortgage rates is making it harder for consumers to find better deals to switch to.
The BoE’s latest money and credit report also shows that net mortgage approvals for house purchases fell to 43,300 in September, the lowest level since January 2023.
Net borrowing of mortgage debt by individuals fell from £1.1bn in August to -£0.9bn in September – the lowest since April 2023, and a sign that people repaid more debt than they took out.
![UK mortgage approval data](https://media.guim.co.uk/de0afc5020cd1515288c7bf23e433965b5bb1da2/0_0_7500_3000/1000.png)
Updated
ING: Germany is a growth laggard
Today’s German growth figures will do “very little to hush the current debate” on whether it is once again the sick man of Europe, says Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING.
Brzeski explains:
In fact, since the war in Ukraine started, the German economy has grown in only two out of the last six quarters. What’s even worse is that the economy currently remains hardly above its pre-pandemic level more than three years later.
These data alone underline that the German economy has at least become one of the growth laggards of the eurozone. This weak growth performance has a long list of explanations: there is the cyclical headwind stemming from inflation, still elevated energy prices and energy uncertainty, higher interest rates and China’s changing role from being a flourishing export destination to being a rival that needs fewer German products.
But there are also well-known structural challenges, ranging from demographics to energy transition and too few investments.
Updated
German GDP fell 0.1% in last quarter but winter recession avoided.
Newsflash: Germany’s economy slightly shank in the last quarter, but it not fall into recession last winter as previously thought.
New economic data just released shows that German GDP fell slightly, by 0.1%, in the third quarter of 2023 compared with the second quarter of the year.
That puts Europe’s largest economy halfway into a technical recession (two quarters of negative growth in a row).
Das #Bruttoinlandsprodukt ist im 3. Quartal 2023 gegenüber dem 2. Quartal 2023 leicht um 0,1 % gesunken. Im 2. Quartal 2023 war die Wirtschaftsleistung noch geringfügig gewachsen (revidiert +0,1 %), im 1. Quartal 2023 stagnierte sie (revidiert). Mehr: https://t.co/xtB0WaPfZo #BIP pic.twitter.com/jYnpAn7URY
— Statistisches Bundesamt (@destatis) October 30, 2023
The Federal Statistical Office reports that household final consumption expenditure fell, while there were positive contributions from investment in machinery and equipment.
However, GDP for the second quarter of 2023 has been revised to show 0.1% growth, up from 0% previously.
And GDP for the first quarter has been revised higher too, to show stagnation rather than a 0.1% fall, following a 0.4% drop in GDP in Q4 2022.
That means Germany did not drop into a technical recession last winter.
![German GDP report](https://media.guim.co.uk/dcb5307b0deee35a15fc1a9dd0b5ca103d738067/0_0_2446_1390/1000.jpg)
Updated
Global bank HSBC has confirmed that the profit boost from higher interest rates has faded somewhat.
HSBC reported this morning that its net interest margin (NIM) dropped by two basis points in the last quarter to 1.7%.
NIM accounts for the difference in interest paid by borrowers and paid out to savers. It swelled as interest rates were raised over the last year, as banks were quicker to raise rates for borrowers than savers.
But this is now reversing, as customers move their money to “term products”, to lock in higher interest rates.
HSBC had a strong last quarter, though – it’s pre-tax profits more than doubled year-on-year to $7.7bn, which it says reflects “the positive impact of a higher interest rate environment”.
Updated
Here’s Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor, on Zoopla’s house price report:
Higher mortgage rates and the cost-of-living crisis have weakened buyer demand, which is languishing 25% below the five-year average in October. Transactions are being taken up by an increasing proportion of cash buyers up from 1 in 5 to 1 in 3 over the last five years. Many buyers are in wait-and-see mode, holding off for now, hoping that house prices will fall further, and mortgage rates will ease next year.
However strong wage growth, low unemployment and strict affordability testing rules have prevented an even steeper slide in house prices. Plus, there is a shortage of housing supply in the UK that is also stemming a more aggressive downturn in property prices.
Individuals and families are faced with the difficult choice between expensive rents and high mortgage rates with Zoopla estimating that for first-time buyers’ mortgage repayments are cheaper than rental costs even at 5.5% borrowing rates.”
Zoopla predict a 23% drop in house sales this year, against 2022 to one million. pic.twitter.com/GDzFraN4jm
— Peter Bill (@peterproperty) October 30, 2023
Zoopla predicts that house prices will continue to drop next year, even if mortgage rates ease a little.
They say:
Assuming mortgage rates drop to 4.5% by the end of 2024, Zoopla expects that house price growth will remain negative with prices down 2% next year.
A faster fall in mortgage rates towards 4% would boost sales activity rather than house prices.
Concerns over the health of the UK economy may encourage the Bank of England not to raise interest rates higher.
The BoE will set borrowing costs on Thursday, and is expected to leave its base rate at 5.25%.
No-change is seen as a 95% chance by the money markets, with just a 5% chance of a hike to 5.5%.
One-third of profit warnings cite tougher credit conditions as interest rates bite
The proportion of businesses who are blaming profit warnings on tighter credit conditions has risen to the highest level since the financial crisis.
A third of the profit warnings issued by UK companies in the last quarter blamed tougher credit conditions as a factor, the latest data from EY-Parthenon shows.
That’s the highest since 2008, and a clear sign that high interest rates are hitting the economy.
One-in-five profit warnings in the last quarter cited the slowing housing market.
Their latest quarterly survey of profit warnings also found that wider economic uncertainty is hitting companies, causing contracts to be delayed or cancelled and hitting consumer confidence.
In the last 12 months, 17.8% of UK-listed companies have issued a profit warning.
But almost half of firms in the FTSE Household Goods & Home Construction sector have issued warnings in the last year – which is the highest level of warnings across a 12-month period since 2008.
Amanda Blackhall O’Sullivan, EY-Parthenon Partner and Special Situations Advisory Leader, explains:
“Small and medium-sized housebuilders are feeling the effect of mortgage rate disruption and rising interest rates on demand and prices, which is resulting in tighter margins. However, there isn’t the same level of price or land value shock as we saw during the global financial crisis in 2008 and today’s sector is in a stronger position to weather the storm. The largest housebuilders have relatively low exposure to the slowing market and will have lower operational leverage and stronger balance sheets in comparison to 2008.
“On the other hand, construction contractors and material suppliers typically operate on higher costs and tighter margins, so may face a tougher period ahead. Earlier this year we saw smaller construction companies feeling the brunt of unprecedented cost, labour and supply chain stresses, and these will be exacerbated by a slowing market. As projects take longer to develop, we’re seeing stress move up the value chain and larger suppliers and sub-contractors are feeling the pressure.”
Updated
Interest rate rises caused sharp drop in UK household wealth. says Resolution
The recent rise in interest rates has been blamed for ending Britain’s wealth boom and causing total household wealth to plunge by a quarter since the Covid-19 pandemic.
A report by the Resolution Foundation, a thinktank, and Financial Fairness Trust – an independent charity historically funded by Standard Life now known as abrdn – said the fall was due to a drop in house prices and pension pots, which account for about £4 out of every £5 of total wealth, and played a leading role in rising wealth across the country over the 40 years leading up to the pandemic.
However, both have fallen in value since the Bank of England started raising interest rates in December 2021. While total household wealth was worth 840% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021, it had tumbled to 630% of GDP this year.
However, the split impact has not fallen evenly across the economy.
As a proportion of total household wealth Scotland, Wales and the north of England have seen the biggest drops of about 25%.
Resolution explains:
This reflects the larger proportion of wealth in these areas held in pensions, whose underlying assets have been hit hardest by rising interest rates. Meanwhile in the south and east of England, relatively resilient house prices have limited the wealth shock there so far. This could change as house prices come to reflect persistently higher mortgage rates.
Updated
Introduction: House prices falling in most parts of the UK, says Zoopla
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
High interest rates are putting a growing strain on UK house prices, household wealth and company finances, new data today shows.
House prices are now falling in most parts of the UK, as high mortgage costs restrict how much buyers are willing, or able, to pay, according to data from property portal Zoopla this morning.
House prices are falling in most parts of the UK, Zoopla says https://t.co/6ZOvjsxM4A via @_DamianShepherd pic.twitter.com/eyizon871g
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) October 30, 2023
High borrowing costs are also pushing some firms into issuing profit warnings, a report from EY-Parthenon today shows (see here for more).
And the surge in interest rates to 5.25%, from 0.1% in late 2021, have triggered a sharp reversal in wealth levels across all parts of the UK, Resolution Foundation says today (see this post for more details).
Zoopla’s latest house price index show that prices have fallen over the last year in four in five local housing markets in the UK, with the largest declines in southern England towns such as Colchester (-3.5%), Canterbury (-3.4%) and Luton (-3.3%).
This is a sharp increase on six months ago, when one in 20 housing markets were showing annual falls.
![A chart showing falls in UK house prices](https://media.guim.co.uk/42a92f15274cd3680a992c2315c6c297067bdf7e/0_0_362_538/336.jpg)
Zoopla’s report shows average UK house prices are down 1.1% over the last year, which it says is the “most dramatic slowdown in price growth since 2009.”
It’s a smaller fall than Nationwide and Halifax have reported, though, based on their mortgage approvals data.
Zoopla points out, though, that the rise of the cash buyer continues. This group will account for one in three sales in 2023 as high mortgage rates hit buyer demand
Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla, says:
“House prices have proven more resilient than many expected over the last year in response to higher mortgage rates. However, almost a quarter fewer people will move home due to greater uncertainty and less buying power.
“Modest house price falls over 2023 mean it’s going to take longer for housing affordability to reset to a level where more people start to move home again. Income growth is finally increasing faster than inflation but mortgage rates remain stuck around 5% or higher. We believe that house prices will post further small falls, averaging 2%, over 2024 with 1m home moves.
“Slow house price growth and rising incomes over the next 12-18 months will improve affordability to levels last seen a decade ago, creating the potential for a rebound in home moves as consumer confidence returns.”
Also coming up today
Germany’s economy will be in the spotlight today, when the latest growth and inflation data is released. Economists predict German GDP fell by 0.3% in the last quarter, while inflation is seen cooling to 4%.
The agenda
9am BST: German Q3 GDP report
9.30am BST: UK mortgage lending and mortgage approvals for September
1pm BST: German inflation report for October
2.30pm BST: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
Updated