Senior bureaucrats were aware of funding hurdles faced by Melbourne's controversial Suburban Rail Loop and fought to keep it from the public, a secret document shows.
The 2020 document, obtained by the state opposition after a three-year freedom of information battle, shows Suburban Rail Loop Authority leaders assessed the project across 12 key categories and deemed nine as "high risk".
The planned 90km orbital rail line is designed to run from Cheltenham in Melbourne's southeast to Werribee in the outer west via the airport at Tullamarine.
To contain the risk of "no funding or reduced funding" for the $34.5 billion eastern section, a strategy was outlined to "maintain strict control over the dissemination of cost figures, ensuring that assumptions, conditions are included in the messaging".
Obtaining enough funding from "value creation or capture" was identified as another high-risk factor, with control over the release of information among the suggested solutions.
Other high-risk areas included market capacity, staff resourcing and precinct aspirations failing to materialise.
Information "leakage" resulting in "negative media leading to reputational damage to the (authority) and Victorian government" was considered a medium risk.
Opposition spokesman for financial integrity and budget repair David Davis accused the government of fighting to keep the document hidden to deceive Victorians as part of a cost "cover-up".
"There is a black hole at the heart of this project, a black hole where the funding is not present," he told reporters at state parliament on Thursday.
The 2021 business and investment case flagged a third of funding for the eastern section was expected to come from value capture, which refers to taxes generated through increased land value and developments near station precincts.
Another third was slated to come from the Commonwealth but a $2.2 billion pledge from Anthony Albanese prior to the 2022 federal election has not been paid out, with its release still under assessment.
So far the Victorian government has committed $11.8 billion.
The entire project was initially estimated to cost $50 billion when first announced by Labor before the 2018 state election.
The state's independent Parliamentary Budget Office cast doubt on that estimate in a 2024 update, putting the cost to build the first two sections at $96.4 billion.
Premier Jacinta Allan was on the defensive when quizzed on why the government fought to keep the "standard" document hidden and the project's future if there was a change of federal government after the upcoming election.
"That is hugely speculative," she told reporters.
"The federal election hasn't even been called yet.
"Have you called (the result) before (ABC election analyst) Antony Green. Your question implies the outcome of the federal election."
The federal election must be held by May 17 and there are two realistic outcomes, a re-elected Labor government or return of the federal coalition after just one term.
Federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton last week dubbed the rail loop a "cruel hoax" and declared a government he led would only invest in "legitimate projects".
Tunnelling contracts worth $5.3 billion were signed in 2024, ahead of boring machines being turned on in 2026.
The state opposition wants the project paused and for the Allan government to "come clean" on whether there are exit clauses in the contracts.
