It was announced on Tuesday that the Miami Heat are willing to listen to offers for their franchise icon, Jimmy Butler. At first glance, this open-minded approach makes sense. Butler is 35, in the final year of his contract and wants to get paid a lot more money than the Heat are probably willing to give him. Besides, at 12-10, the Heat hardly seem to be contending for a title this season.
But if you zoom in a little bit, you’ll see the last 10 games reveal the Heat both shouldn’t trade Butler and may still have one more deep run left with their current core.
Some Key Lineup Changes
Through 12 games, the Heat were 5-7 with the NBA’s 16th-best net rating in the NBA. Over their last 10, they’re 7-3 with the sixth-best net rating. What’s changed? Simple: the starting lineup.
You need depth to win in this league, but you also need to know how to use it. The Heat’s original starting five (Butler, Tyler Herro, Terry Rozier, Nikola Jovic and Bam Adebayo) lacked lineup balance. It was bountiful in on-ball creation and scarce in size, defense and shooting.
To remedy this, head coach Erik Spoelstra swapped Rozier and Jovic for Duncan Robinson and Haywood Highsmith. Robinson is one of the best shooters on the planet (38.8 percent 3-point shooter on volume that ranks in the 97th percentile league-wide). Meanwhile, Highsmith is one of the team’s best defenders (97th percentile in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus, per Dunks & Threes). He’s also improved as a shooter (40.1 percent from deep the past two years) and is an astute cutter, both of which have turned from an offensive liability to passable on that end.
In theory, subbing out 6-foot-10 Jovic for 6-foot-7 Highsmith takes away size. However, if you factor in the swap of 6-foot-7 Robinson for 6-foot-1 Rozier, it’s more like they’re redistributing their size. Further, Rozier and Jovic’s combined wingspan is roughly 164 inches. In comparison, Robinson and Highsmith have a combined wingspan of 169 inches.
Look at how much the team’s offense, 3-point shooting, defense and defensive rebounding — the last of which is a good indicator of a team’s functional size — improve with this new starting lineup:
Not only did Spoelstra change the starting lineup, he’s also reconfigured his bench rotation. Jovic, Josh Richardson and Alec Burks are no longer earning consistent minutes. Instead, opportunities are being handed out to more conventional Heat players like 2024 second-round pick Pelle Larsson and undrafted guard Dru Smith, both of whom compete fiercely on the defense, attack closeouts with reckless abandon and can hit open jumpers at a semi-reliable rate.
Rozier has benefitted from returning to his roots as a bench scorer. He’s averaging nearly the same amount of points per game off the bench that he was as a starter (10.9 as a reserve vs. 12.9 as a starter) on much better efficiency (58.8 percent true shooting vs. 50.5 percent).
The Miami Heat Are Deep
Now that the pieces are properly placed, the Heat can actually profit off of all the rotation-level players they roster. As is customary with star tandems, the Heat can stagger the minutes of Butler and Adebayo to ensure one of their anchors is on the floor at all times. And despite his age, Butler is still performing at a high level, posting a career-high 65.9 percent true shooting on scoring volume similar to that of his prime years.
Much like with Butler and Adebayo, Miami can stagger Herro and Rozier. The two may be detrimental together (minus-1.62 net rating, per PBP Stats), but having one combustable combo guard on the floor at all times can be quite valuable. Look at the impact guys like Payton Pritchard and Jordan Poole had on title-winning teams in recent seasons.
When it comes to the backup center spot, the Heat have the luxury of riding the hot hand. One night, the gray-bearded Kevin Love will have just enough gas in the tank to offer 12-15 productive minutes (see a recent win against Los Angeles Lakers). When that isn’t the case, Thomas Bryant is ready in his stead (see a recent win against Cleveland Cavaliers). And if he grows enough this season, rookie Kel’el Ware can be added to this mix.
On most nights, the Heat won’t need both of Larsson and Smith to contribute. So, Spoelstra will ride the hot hand and pick one of them to be the team’s junkyard dog off the bench. Not to mention, 2023-24 First Team All-Rookie Jaime Jaquez — who is struggling right now (49.4 percent true shooting) — could rediscover his old groove at any point and become much more valuable as the season progresses.
What This Means For Miami Moving Forward
Even including their poor first 12 games, the Heat are still ninth in offensive rating and 11th in defensive rating. Since changing their starting five, the Heat have the NBA’s sixth-best defense. Look for them to soon enter the top 10 defensively as their sample with the new group grows. Historically, a great deal of teams that have made deep playoff runs finish top 10 offensively and defensively, so Miami joining such company could be significant for its title chances.
During the offseason, our big question mark for the Heat was whether the best healthy version of themselves might have a lineup that could post a plus-9.0 (or better) net rating in at least 300 non-garbage time possessions. It’s something almost all past championship teams of the last two decades have had going for them.
Well, the Heat are healthy now (third-fewest player games missed to injury in the NBA, per Spotrac), and sport a plus-21.2 net rating in 236 possessions with their new starting lineup, per Cleaning the Glass. Barring a severe downturn or an uptick in injuries (*knocks wood aggressively*), the Heat are on pace to check that box.
Now, they’re not flawless. Even with their changes, they’re still a little too small to hang with the league’s most physical teams, sorely lack rim pressure (22nd in rim frequency) and are susceptible to a major offensive decline if or when Herro ever comes off his heater.
But even with these flaws, this version of the Heat is easily an outer circle contender. Given their prior penchant for grinding out playoff matchups en route to improbable victories, that label should be enough to hold off on a Butler trade and shoot for one last push at an NBA title.
