Topline
Pennsylvania could be a pivotal battleground state in determining the winner of the presidential election, but as the state receives an influx of mail-in ballots that it won’t start counting until Election Day—or, in some counties, even later—it could be days before it becomes clear who won the Keystone State.
Key Facts
Pennsylvania counties can’t start counting mail-in votes until 7:00 a.m. on Election Day, after negotiations to start counting ballots earlier broke down between GOP state lawmakers and Gov. Tom Wolf.
In areas like Philadelphia, that vote counting process will start as soon as possible, and some counties expect to have their mail-in ballots tallied overnight after Election Day.
Several conservative-leaning counties, however, say they won’t start counting mail-in ballots until after their in-person ballots are counted: Erie County will start around 11 p.m. on Election Day, Cumberland County won’t start until 9 a.m. on Nov. 4 and Beaver County won’t start until their office opens on Nov. 4, among others.
The state has invested heavily in additional election equipment to process votes quicker, and a recent Pennsylvania Supreme Court decision ruling that ballots can’t be challenged or thrown out over signature issues should help speed up the process.
Pennsylvania will accept mail-in ballots that are delivered up to three days after Election Day, and while the U.S. Supreme Court declined to change the deadline, justices raised the possibility they could reconsider the case after Election Day—meaning that those post-Election Day ballots could get tied up in court proceedings if the vote is close enough that they’d affect the outcome.
Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar has predicted that “the overwhelming majority” of votes will be counted by Friday, Nov. 6.
What To Watch For
Pennsylvania’s extended vote-counting process could ultimately throw the election into chaos, particularly if the Electoral College count is close enough that Pennsylvania’s winner would determine the election or if the count comes down to a tight margin—which could be likely, given that President Donald Trump won the state by 0.7% in 2016. The in-person votes that get counted on Election Day could also give Trump an initial lead, causing him to prematurely claim victory and sow chaos as Joe Biden narrows the gap when the mail-in ballot counts become clearer. Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro told the Washington Post Thursday that he expects Trump to challenge Pennsylvania’s mail-in ballots in court and attempt to have the ballots—which are predominantly being cast by Democrats—thrown out. The state specifically decided to separate any ballots that arrive after Election Day from other ballots to ensure that those are the only ballots that will be rejected if the Supreme Court rules that the extended mail-in ballot deadline isn’t valid, rather than Trump using the decision to try and have all mail-in ballots thrown out. That being said, Shapiro warned the Post that he expects Trump to use the challenge against any post-Election Day ballots “as a hook to challenge all mail-in ballots.”
Big Number
3,097,890. That’s the total number of mail-in ballots that have been requested in Pennsylvania, according to the U.S. Elections Project, of which 2,112,995 have been returned so far.
Crucial Quote
“If it turns out to be really close and it comes down to Pennsylvania,” election law expert Rick Hasen told the New York Times, “God help the United States of America.”
Key Background
Pennsylvania has been one of the most fraught battleground states in the November election, as Trump and the GOP have challenged everything from the state’s mail-in ballot deadline and ballot drop boxes to poll watchers and the mail-in ballots themselves. Trump, who has made the state a regular stop on his campaign trail ahead of the election, has frequently complained about the state’s voting policies, calling the extended mail-in voting deadline a “disaster for our nation” and calling Philadelphia’s refusal to allow poll watchers in satellite election offices where mail-in ballots get dropped off—because they’re not official polling places—“corruption.”
Further Reading
Pennsylvania Presidential Result Likely To Come Days After Election As Talks Stall On Early Count (Forbes)
Pennsylvania Ballots Can’t Be Thrown Out For Mismatched Signatures, Court Rules In Blow To GOP (Forbes)
What we will and won’t know on election night in Pennsylvania (Philadelphia Inquirer)
Why Pennsylvania’s Vote Count Could Change After Election Night (FiveThirtyEight)
Trump’s effort to steal the election, explained by a Democrat fighting against it (Washington Post)
