Awards season is wrapping up this year just like music fans have always thought it should.
Yes, at least for 2022, the March 27 Oscars were the de facto opening act for the Grammys. And given the shocking event-filled Academy Awards ceremony, that is saying something.
The reversal of schedule, due to the Grammys being postponed from their original Jan. 31 date because of COVID-19 precautions, means that possibly even more attention than usual will be given to “Music’s Biggest Night,” now set for April 3.
So, let’s direct our attention toward the stars who are likely to shine the brightest when the Grammys are handed out on April 3 at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.
Louisiana R&B man Jon Batiste leads the packs with 11 nominations, while Justin Bieber, Doja Cat and the Bay Area’s own H.E.R. make for a three-way tie for second place with eight nods each. Multiple-Grammy-winner Billie Eilish — who also won an Oscar for best song on Sunday for her James Bond theme song “No Time to Die” — and blazing hot newcomer Olivia Rodrigo are also up there, with seven nominations a piece.
Of course, nominations do not always lead to trophies. None of the multiple nominees are guaranteed of a single victory on Grammy night.
Well, except maybe Rodrigo. But we’ll get to that later.
So, let’s look into our crystal ball and try and predict which artists have the best chance of coming out on top in the four biggie “general field” races, where artists from different genres go head-to-head in pursuit of the gold.
We’ll find out if our predictions prove correct when the Grammys are aired on CBS at 8 p.m. ET April 3.
Record of the Year
Nominees: “I Still Have Faith In You,” ABBA; “Freedom,” Jon Batiste; “I Get a Kick Out of You,” Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga; “Peaches,” Justin Bieber featuring Daniel Caesar and Giveon; “Right on Time,” Brandi Carlile; “Kiss Me More,” Doja Cat featuring SZA, “Happier Than Ever,” Billie Eilish; “Montero (Call Me By Your Name),” Lil Nas X, “drivers license,” Olivia Rodrigo; “Leave the Door Open,” Silk Sonic
The skinny: This category has one foot in the past and one in the present, mixing longtime favorites ABBA and Tony Bennett with Lady Gaga with newer acts like Doja Cat, Billie Eilish and Olivia Rodrigo. Yet, the Recording Academy has been fighting really hard against the once-widely held perception that the Grammys are out of touch with today’s music. So that probably knocks ABBA and the Bennett/Gaga collaboration out of the running.
“Freedom,” “Leave the Door Open” and “Montero (Call Me By Your Name)” are OK numbers, but none of those screams “song of the year.” “Right on Time” might be the finest tune in the mix, but it seems like a longshot in a race filled with such pop juggernauts as “Kiss Me More” and “Peaches.”
Eilish is a Grammy favorite, but she just won this category last year with “Everything I Wanted.” A win for “drivers license” could be part of a really big night for Rodrigo. Plus, it’s the best breakup song to come around in quite some time.
The winner: “drivers license”
Album of the Year
Nominees: “We Are,” Jon Batiste; “Love for Sale,” Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga; “Justice (Triple Chucks Deluxe),” Justin Bieber; “Planet Her (Deluxe),” Doja Cat; “Happier Than Ever,” Billie Eilish; “Back of My Mind,” H.E.R.; “Montero,” Lil Nas X; “Sour,” Olivia Rodrigo; “Evermore,” Taylor Swift; “Donda,” Kanye West
The skinny: We’ll start off, as we always do, by eliminating any album that has the word “deluxe” as part of the title. Sorry, Bieber and Doja Cat, but that marketing ploy isn’t going to work here. Plus, it’s not like there aren’t other albums on this list that seem like better bets.
A sentimental tide in support of the great Tony Bennett, who’s 95 and all but retired from music, could wash “Love for Sale” to victory, especially since the duet with lady Gaga was announced as his final album. Then again, voters seem pretty committed to honoring newer artists and staying away from the image of being “your parents’ Grammys.”
Swift could win this category pretty much each and every year that she puts out an album. Yet, she just won it last year for “Folklore” and we don’t see a repeat in the cards in 2022.
“Sour” is a wonderful pop album, but Rodrigo seemingly has a better chance in the other general field categories.
“We Are” and “Back of My Mind” will get some votes, but probably not as many as “Happier Than Ever” — which has a really strong chance of garnering Eilish’s second album of the year trophy, following the “When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?” win in 2020.
West boasts several albums that have deserved to win this trophy. But don’t count “Donda” among that number. All the negative headlines he has generated of certainly hasn’t aided his cause. Of course, it’d be fun to see him win if for no other reason than his acceptance speech would likely be EPIC!
The winner: “Happier Than Ever”
Song of the Year
Award given to the songwriter(s).
Nominees: “Bad Habits,” Fred Gibson, Johnny McDaid and Ed Sheeran, songwriters (Ed Sheeran); “A Beautiful Noise,” Ruby Amanfu, Brandi Carlile, Brandy Clark, Alicia Keys, Hillary Lindsey, Lori McKenna, Linda Perry and Hailey Whitters, songwriters (Alicia Keys and Brandi Carlile); “drivers license,” Daniel Nigro and Olivia Rodrigo, songwriters (Olivia Rodrigo); “Fight for You,” Dernst Emile II, H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas, songwriters (H.E.R.); “Happier Than Ever,” Billie Eilish O’Connell and Finneas O’Connell, songwriters (Billie Eilish); “Kiss Me More,” Rogét Chahayed, Amala Zandile Dlamini, Lukasz Gottwald, Carter Lang, Gerard A. Powell II, Solána Rowe and David Sprecher, songwriters (Doja Cat featuring SZA); “Leave the Door Open,” Brandon Anderson, Christopher Brody Brown, Dernst Emile II and Bruno Mars, songwriters (Silk Sonic); “Montero (Call Me by Your Name),” Denzel Baptiste, David Biral, Omer Fedi, Montero Hill and Roy Lenzo, songwriters (Lil Nas X); “Peaches,” Louis Bell, Justin Bieber, Giveon Dezmann Evans, Bernard Harvey, Felisha “Fury” King, Matthew Sean Leon, Luis Manuel Martinez Jr., Aaron Simmonds, Ashton Simmonds, Andrew Wotman and Keavan Yazdani, songwriters (Justin Bieber featuring Daniel Caesar and Giveon); “Right on Time,” Brandi Carlile, Dave Cobb, Phil Hanseroth and Tim Hanseroth, songwriters (Brandi Carlile)
The skinny: Eilish won this award in 2020 with “Bad Guy,” a far more memorable offering than the she’s nominated for this time. So, we’ll reluctantly cross her off our list. Ed Sheeran is also in the camp of artists who have already won this award with better material (see: “Thinking Out Loud”).
H.E.R. won this category just last year with “I Can’t Breathe.” Yet, it’s never wise to write this Vallejo star off in any category — or at any award show. H.E.R. and co-writers Tiara Thomas and Dernst Emile II have has a real shot at going back-to-back with the Oscar-winning “Fight for You.”
Biebs is another strong contender with the omnipresent “Peaches” and Rodrigo certainly impressed with her amazing debut single. Both of those seem to have the edge over the trio of “Kiss Me More,” “Leave the Door Open” and “Montero (Call Me by Your Name).”
“Right on Time” is an absolutely exquisite piece of songwriting. The voters could use this opportunity to further recognize Carlile, who certainly ranks among the greatest songwriters of today. Yet, Carlile is a double nominee in this category, which could split the vote and make it hard for her to grab the “W.”
The winner: “Fight for You”
Best New Artist
Nominees: Arooj Aftab, Jimmie Allen, Baby Keem, FINNEAS, Glass Animals, Japanese Breakfast, The Kid LAROI, Arlo Parks, Olivia Rodrigo, Saweetie
The skinny: It’s an impressive grouping of talent, with a number of artists who would stand a good chance of taking the title in a normal year.
Yet, it’s not a normal year. It’s the year of Olivia Rodrigo, the former Disney Channel star who shocked the music world by delivering one of the best pop albums in recent years. Her concerts have been selling out in a blink of an eye and she seriously has a shot at sweeping all four general field categories this year.
Don’t bet the farm on the clean sweep, of course. But it would be a first-tier Grammy shocker if anybody else’s name is called when it comes time to hand out this award.
The winner: Olivia Rodrigo
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THE GRAMMY AWARDS
When: 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 3
Where: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas; televised on CBS
Host: Trevor Noah
Scheduled performers: Jon Batiste; H.E.R.; Nas; Chris Stapleton; Stephen Sondheim in memoriam segment featuring Cynthia Erivo, Leslie Odom Jr., Ben Platt and Rachel Zegler; Brothers Osborne; BTS; Brandi Carlile; Billie Eilish; Lil Nas X; Olivia Rodrigo; Jack Harlow
