Here’s Why a Trump Presidency Is Not the End of the Road for Rivian Stock

The startup electric vehicle (EV) ecosystem has been troubled, to say the least. Stock prices have fallen to record lows, companies have scaled back production amid tepid demand, and, worse, some companies have gone bankrupt. Even more EV startups may be on the verge of going out of business considering the policies that President-elect Donald Trump is expected to pursue in his second term.

Notably, the startup EV ecosystem is notorious for its massive cash burn. Most emerging electric vehicle companies have weak balance sheets and have to access capital markets often to raise cash.

Since their stock prices have been gradually falling, subsequent capital raises have invariably happened at lower prices, leading to massive dilution. Nikola (NKLA) is an excellent example – the company has been selling shares in a literal frenzy as it works toward successfully commercializing its vehicles.

Another troubling aspect for EV startups has been the lack of compelling products that can compete with U.S. market leader Tesla (TSLA) as well as offerings from legacy automakers like Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) that have access to widespread sales and service networks. 

However, for investors, Rivian (RIVN) is one name that stands out from its new-age EV peers, and a Trump presidency is not the end of the road for the company.

RIVN Stock Price Prediction 

Of the 25 analysts actively covering Rivian, 10 rate it as a “Strong Buy” and one as a “Moderate Buy.” 13 analysts rate it as a “Hold” while one rates it as a “Strong Sell.” Rivian’s mean target price of $15.08 is 13% higher than its Jan. 14 closing price of $13.34. Its Street-high target price of $25 is over 87% higher.

Last month, Benchmark initiated coverage on RIVN with a “Buy” rating while Baird downgraded the stock from an “Outperform” to “Neutral” and cut its target price from $18 to $16. The brokerage listed the lack of catalysts in 2025 and potential adverse policy changes under the Trump administration as among the reasons for the downgrade. Baird analyst Ben Kallo however added, “We remain positive on RIVN’s product/brand and the long-term opportunity which remains intact.”

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Rivian’s Long-Term Forecast Looks Positive 

I share Kallo’s optimism toward Rivian’s long-term forecast. The company ticks most of the right boxes and should be able to survive the current EV industry slump better than most - if not all - of its U.S.-based startup peers. Here’s what makes me bullish on Rivian despite the stock’s perennial underperformance.

• Good product proposition: Unlike many startup EV companies offering “me-too” products, Rivian boasts a strong product proposition. Car And Driver rates its 2025 R1S SUV as 8.5/10 and the R1T pickup as 10/10. The publication does however acknowledge that its R1S faces higher competition.
• Backing from Amazon and Volkswagen: Amazon (AMZN) is Rivian’s biggest shareholder and also a major buyer of the company’s electric vans, although Rivian can also sell its electric delivery vehicles (EDVs) to third parties. Volkswagen (VWAGY) has also backed Rivian and upped its investment to $5.8 billion when the two companies finalized their joint venture in November. The investment from the German auto giant is a testimony to Rivian’s prowess. The investment also helps strengthen Rivian’s balance sheet.
• Rivian’s margins should improve in 2025: Rivian previously said that it would post a positive gross margin in the fourth quarter. We’ll get to know more about the company’s financial performance when it reports its Q4 earnings on Feb. 20, but Rivian has fared much better than peers on execution and delivering on forecasts. The company’s margins should gradually improve going forward on better economies of scale.
• Increase in vehicle deliveries: Rivian is expanding its product portfolio which should help spur deliveries. Notably, Rivian’s upcoming R2 platform will be priced at around $45,000, and deliveries are expected to commence in the first half of 2026. The company then plans to start delivering vehicles based on the R3 platform, which will be priced even below R2. 

Can Rivian Stock Go Up in a Trump Presidency?

There is still an air of uncertainty over the policies that Trump might pursue in his second term. He could clamp down on the “leasing loophole” through which personal cars get classified as "commercial vehicles” if they are leased and buyers can claim the EV tax credit. Trump could also tweak the corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards which would hit the regulatory credit sales business that many EV companies have undertaken. Rivian, for instance, expects to earn $275 million in regulatory credit sales in Q4 which is no small change for a company of its size.

Moreover, Vivek Ramaswamy, incoming co-head of the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), has threatened to claw back the $6.6 billion federal loan for Rivian that the U.S. Department of Energy granted in November. 

All said, despite all the noise over Trump talking about ending the “EV mandate,” I find Rivian a name worth betting on given its strong product proposition, credible management, and upcoming budget models that should help the company achieve scale.