With a market cap of $33.4 billion, Vistra Corp. (VST) is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company that provides essential resources to individuals, businesses, and communities. The Irving, Texas-based company operates through Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure segments.
The company is expected to unveil its Q1 2025 earnings before the market opens on Wednesday, May 7. Ahead of this event, analysts expect Vistra to report a profit of $0.63 per share, representing a notable growth of 173.9% from $0.23 per share reported in the same quarter last year. The company has surpassed Wall Street’s bottom-line estimates in one of the past four quarters while missing on three other occasions.
Meanwhile, for fiscal 2025, analysts forecast VST to report an EPS of $5.68, marking an 18.9% decline from $7 reported in fiscal 2024. However, in fiscal 2026, its earnings are expected to rebound 36.1% year-over-year to $7.73 per share.
VST stock has soared 74.7% over the past 52 weeks, significantly outpacing the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 9.4% gain and the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLU) 16.9% returns during the same time frame.
Vistra’s stock prices fell 12.3% following the release of its disappointing Q4 2024 results on Feb. 27. Revenue for the quarter came in at $4 billion, marking an increase of 31.2% year-over-year, however, the figure fell short of Street expectations. Meanwhile, its net income stood at $490 million compared to a loss of $184 million in the prior-year quarter, but its EPS came in at $1.14, falling short of analysts’ expectations by 47.5%. These negative surprises unsettled investors' confidence.
Nonetheless, analysts' consensus view on VST remains notably optimistic, with a "Strong Buy" rating overall. Among 14 analysts covering the stock, 12 suggest a "Strong Buy," and two recommend a “Hold” rating. Its mean price target of $172.86 represents a 36.5% premium to current price levels.
