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Moderna, Inc. (MRNA), headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is a leading biotechnology company committed to pioneering messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines to transform the future of medicine. With a market cap of $15.9 billion, Moderna offers a diverse portfolio of mRNA-based vaccines and treatments across infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, and rare diseases. The company is set to announce its Q4 earnings on Thursday, Feb. 27.
Ahead of the event, analysts expect Moderna to report a loss of $2.94 per share, down 634.6% from the profit of $0.55 per share in the same quarter last year. The company has consistently surpassed Wall Street’s EPS estimates in each of its last four quarterly reports.
The company delivered an EPS of $0.03 in the last reported quarter, surpassing the consensus estimate by 101.6%. Moderna's earnings beat was driven by strong vaccine demand and effective cost management.
For fiscal 2024, analysts expect MRNA to report a loss per share of $9.27, 24.8% narrower from a loss per share of $12.33 in fiscal 2023.
Moderna's shares have declined 59% over the past 52 weeks, significantly underperforming the broader S&P 500 Index's ($SPX) 25.3% gains and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund's (XLV) 4.1% rise over the same time frame.
Moderna’s shares have underperformed the broader market and its peers due to weakening COVID-19 vaccine demand, rising royalty expenses, inventory write-downs, and delays in the launch of its RSV vaccine.
On Nov. 7, MRNA stock closed down more than 2% after the company reported its Q3 earnings results. The company’s revenue of $1.86 billion surpassed Wall Street expectations of $1.26 billion, a 1.7% increase year-over-year. Moderna has reiterated its 2024 net product sales forecast of $3 to $3.5 billion from its respiratory franchise. The company has narrowed its cost of sales guidance to 40% to 45% of product sales, down from the previous range of 40% to 50%. The company anticipates ending the year with approximately $9 billion in cash and investments, supporting its ongoing pipeline progress and upcoming late-stage milestones.
The consensus opinion on MRNA stock is cautious, with an overall “Hold” rating. Out of 25 analysts covering the stock, five advise a “Strong Buy” rating, 16 suggest a “Hold,” one gives a “Moderate Sell,” and three recommend a “Strong Sell.”
The average analyst price target for Moderna stands at $75.14, suggesting a remarkable potential upside of 81.5% from current price levels.
