The rate of value decline in Australia's housing market has been shrinking month to month, the latest housing figures show.
Does this point to a recovery in the housing market? Well, not quite.
CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless says the easing in the rate of decline is mostly from the Sydney and Melbourne markets, and is also seen in the smaller capitals and regional markets.
"Potentially we are seeing the initial uncertainty around buying in a higher interest rate environment wearing off," he said.
This, combined with persistently low advertised stock levels, had likely contributed to the trend of smaller value falls, Mr Lawless said.
Here's a capital city breakdown of what Australia's latest housing figures look like.
Sydney
Sydney median house value: $1,243,126
- Monthly change: 1.5 per cent drop
- Annual: 11.5 per cent drop
Median unit value: $781,663
- Monthly change: 0.9 per cent drop
- Annual: 8.3 per cent drop
Sydney housing values were falling at the monthly rate of 2.3 per cent three months ago, Mr Lawless said.
"That has now reduced by a full percentage point to a decline of 1.3 per cent in November."
Sydney is the only city where housing values have fallen by more than 10 per cent from their peak.
Through the upswing, Sydney values increased by 27.7 per cent before peaking in January.
Melbourne
Melbourne median house value: $915,005
- Monthly change: 1 per cent down
- Annual: 8.3 per cent down
Median unit value: $597,939
- Monthly change: 0.2 per cent down
- Annual: 3.8 per cent down
Due to a weaker upswing, Melbourne values are 2.8 per cent above where they were at the onset of the COVID pandemic, the latest data shows.
If housing values continue to fall at the current pace of 0.8 per cent month on month, Mr Lawless says Melbourne’s dwelling values could fall to pre-COVID levels by March next year.
Adelaide
Adelaide median house value: $702,392
- Monthly change: 0.4 per cent drop
- Annual: 13.2 per cent growth
Median unit value: $436,673
- Monthly change: 0.4 per cent up
- Annual: 15.2 per cent up
Overall, Adelaide dwelling values have posted more than 40 per cent growth since the onset of the pandemic — March 2020.
CoreLogic figures show Adelaide areas that recorded the largest annual growth include Playford (up 22.7 per cent), Salisbury (up 21.3 per cent) and Gawler - Two Wells (up 18.8 per cent).
As for regional South Australia, Barossa has posted 23 per cent annual growth, Limestone Coast is up 20.5 per cent, and Murray and Mallee have posted a 20.5 per cent uptick over the year to November.
Brisbane
Brisbane median house value: $798,552
- Monthly change: 2.2 per cent drop
- Annual: 2.3 per cent up
Median unit value: $492,481
- Monthly change: 0.5 per cent drop
- Annual: 8.9 per cent up
Across the capital cities, Brisbane and Hobart — both down 2 per cent for median home values — led the monthly rate of decline in November.
Mr Lawless said the rate of decline was no longer accelerating in Brisbane.
Canberra
Canberra median house value: $987,450
- Monthly change: 1.3 per cent drop
- Annual: 2.9 per cent drop
Median unit value: $600,628
- Monthly change: 0.8 per cent drop
- Annual: 5.2 per cent up
Mr Lawless said the rate of decline had also eased across the ACT, from a 1.7 per cent fall in August.
Darwin
Darwin house value: $588,972
- Monthly change: 0.3 per cent drop
- Annual: 5.5 per cent up
Median unit value: $381,831
- Monthly change: 1.2 per cent up
- Annual: 5.6 per cent up
Data shows areas that recorded the largest annual growth included Palmerston, with a median value of $486,027 (up 7 per cent), and Darwin City, with a median value of $486,215 (up 6.3 per cent).
Hobart
Hobart median house value: $740,100
- Monthly change: 2 per cent down
- Annual: 3.7 per cent down
Median unit value: $539,720
- Monthly change: 1.8 per cent down
- Annual: 5.7 per cent down
Hobart joined Brisbane in leading the falls, each down 2 per cent in November.
“Every capital city apart from Hobart is recording a more resilient outcome for unit values relative to houses," Mr Lawless said.
"This trend can at least partially be attributed to the more moderate gains recorded during the upswing, but probably also reflects the unit sector's more affordable price point at a time when borrowing capacity has reduced."
Perth
Perth median house value: $585,989
- Monthly change: 0.1 per cent up
- Annual: 4.1 per cent up
Median unit value: $410,046
- Monthly change: 0.3 per cent drop
- Annual: 1.6 per cent up
The Perth and Darwin markets are yet to record any signs of a "material reversal" in housing prices, Mr Lawless said.
"A comparatively healthy level of housing affordability, along with tight labour markets and relatively strong economic conditions, have helped to insulate these cities from the downturn so far."
When will the RBA board meet next?
This year's final cash rate call will be announced following the RBA's board meeting on Tuesday, December 6.
The trajectory of interest rates remains the most important factor for housing market conditions.
Interest rates affect how much people can borrow, which in turn influences house prices.
CoreLogic says there is a "good chance" Australian interest rates will peak in the first half of 2023, if not in the first quarter.
