The Matildas have had a tough start to their Paris 2024 campaign, and with their final group stage fixture against the USA on Thursday, it’s only about to get more difficult for the girls in green and gold.
So what does it take for the Tillies to progress to the quarter-finals? Women in STEM unite because it’s time to crunch some numbers.
How does football at the Olympics work?
The Women’s Olympic Football Tournament consists of 12 teams split into three groups of four. Each team plays three group-stage games, with the top two teams in each group automatically qualifying for the quarter-finals.
Additionally, the two best third-placed teams will also advance to the quarter-finals, which could be the crucial golden ticket to the Matildas success at Paris 2024.
After a shocking loss to Germany in our first game, and a narrow win against Zambia in a chaotic 11-goal game, the Matildas sit third in our group with three points and a goal difference on -2 heading into our final group-stage fixture.
Where can we finish?
The Matildas can still finish anywhere in Group B heading into the final game. While we only need a (good) third-place finish to qualify for the quarter-finals, our position will determine our next fixture.
If the Matildas finish first, they will face the second-placed team in Group C in the quarter-final at 11pm on Saturday. This will likely be Japan.
If the Matildas place second, they will face the second-placed team in Group A at 3am on Sunday. This will likely be Canada or Colombia.
If the Matildas place third and are among the best two third-placed teams, they will face the winner of either Group C or Group A at 1am or 5am on Sunday, respectively. This will likely be Spain or France.
What to expect against the USA
While the USA had a horrific run at the FIFA Women’s World Cup last year, where they didn’t even make finals after being eliminated by Sweden in the Round of 16, they should not be underestimated.
The USWNT is the most successful women’s national team of all time, having won four FIFA Women’s World Cup titles, four Olympic gold medals and ten other major titles.
In fact, the only thing that has ever prevented them from a podium finish is a match against Sweden — which cost them in both the 2016 Olympics, and the 2023 Women’s World Cup. But with their kryptonite failing to qualify for the tournament, the USA are going to fight tooth and nail for that gold medal in Paris.
They’ve got star players in Trinity Rodman and Sophia Smith, just to name a few, and if that wasn’t already tough enough, this is also their first tournament under the management of former Chelsea women’s coach Emma Hayes.
What happens if we beat the USA?
If the Matildas manage to beat the USA, we are guaranteed to advance to the quarter-finals and will finish anywhere from first to third — depending on goal difference and how the other fixture between Germany and Zambia plays out.
If the Matildas win, and Germany wins: Australia, Germany and the USA will be on six points and Australia will need to beat the US by at least two more goals than Germany beats Zambia by in order to finish second and guarantee qualification. We’d have to put four goals on the USA in order to overtake them — unlikely, but stranger things have happened.
A win of any kind guarantees third-place qualification for Australia.
What happens if we draw against the USA?
The good news for Aussies is that the only thing we *need* to qualify as a third-place team and guarantee a spot in the quarter-finals is a draw.
If the Matildas draw against the USA and Zambia *doesn’t* beat Germany, Australia will finish the group stage as the best third-placed team.
If Zambia does beat Germany and the Matildas don’t lose against the USA, we will finish second in the group.
Mathematically speaking, nobody in Group A can finish third with more than three points — so if we can secure the one point with a draw, we will be the higher-placed third-place team and will qualify.
The third-placed team in Group C may also finish on four points, but because the top two third-placed teams qualify, this doesn’t matter for the Aussies.
Can we still qualify if we lose against the USA?
The good news for Aussies is that the Matildas can still technically qualify for the quarter-finals if we lose against the USA — but it won’t be guaranteed and we will be putting our fate in the hands of the other teams.
There are several mathematical ways we can qualify with a loss, depending on the results of every other game, but the easiest way is if Canada lose or draw against Colombia.
While Canada are the reigning Olympic champions and are in great form, they’ve had a bunch of hiccups this tournament (namely, the cheating scandal) that could impact them. Colombia also should never be underestimated, with players like Linda Caicedo, Cataline Usme and Mayra Ramirez in the mix, and a burning desire to qualify, they’ll be playing hardball.
Other qualification possibilities include:
- If the Matildas lose and Canada and New Zealand also lose or draw their final games.
- If the Matildas lose and Canada beat Colombia by three goals AND as many goals as we lost by *AND* New Zealand lose or draw to France.
- If the Matildas lose and Spain beat Brazil by two goals AND as many goals as we lost by *AND* Nigeria lose or draw against Japan.
Our qualification in a loss scenario also depends on the result in the Zambia v Germany game. If Zambia can beat Germany 1-0 and the USA beat the Matildas 1-0, we would finish the group on equal points but would still qualify based on the one-goal margin we held over Zambia in our last game.
You can watch the Matildas play the USA at 3am on Thursday morning on Channel 9 and 9Now.
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