It’s very early in the 2022 season, but that doesn’t mean we can’t take stock of the NFL’s haves and have-nots.
Our power rankings reflect an all-encompassing look at the league. This Super Bowl index is more about who’s ahead of the pack and who can actually make a deep playoff run in January. And three games is plenty enough sample size to start figuring and tinkering around with the NFL’s true championship contenders.
Sure, there might be a budding juggernaut in Philadelphia. But the Eagles have got a target on their back, and this group (which may only change as the year goes on) will be gunning for them the entire season.
After three weeks, here’s a first look at the five NFL teams who have the horses to win Super Bowl 57 in the coming months.
5
Green Bay Packers (2-1)
Why they’ll win it all: These are not your typical high-flying Packers under Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay plays a different bruising “NFC Central” style of football that few squads can replicate in 2022.
Right now, the Packers are sixth in both scoring and total defense, ninth in rushing yards, and they’ve got a top-10 third-down offense and the league’s best third-down defense. In the playoffs, where you do indeed have to take the air out of the ball sometimes while also playing functional “team ball,” this is a mix that could very well pay off for the Packers come January and February.
Why they won’t: By that same token, the playoffs are all about matchups. They’re all about the squad with better playmakers using said weapons to get that slight edge in a win. While I like the Green Bay balance overall and the stiff defense, let me pose this scenario:
You’re on the road in, say, Philadelphia in late January. Who are you going to on third-and-long in the fourth quarter with a “gotta have it” play? Allen Lazard? Christian Watson? Rookie Romeo Doubs? Oof, yeah, I have my doubts the sticks keep moving on said possession. A playoff-caliber defense won’t respect the Packers’ mix on offense until they can prove they can test them downfield.
4
Miami Dolphins (3-0)
Why they’ll win it all: Chunk plays, chunk plays, chunk plays.
At the moment, the Dolphins have the NFL’s second and third-leading receivers in Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, respectively. And what both do best is turning simple short tosses in the open field into backbreaking gains. Or they simply toast some poor defender on easy downfield bombs because they’re so much faster than everyone.
Thus far, no one has an answer for what looks like pro football’s best playmaking duo. Waddle and Hill have been so good they’ve even helped Tua Tagovailoa seemingly blossom into a legitimate franchise quarterback. Should the Dolphins have some measure of home-field advantage in the playoffs, they’ll get teams trying to keep up with their explosive offense and ridiculous receivers in the South Beach heat. Good luck.
Why they won’t: Look, you’re probably legit any time you can beat Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen back-to-back. But luck certainly played a huge factor in both upsets. And if that’s how the Dolphins plan to beat the big dogs in the winter, I’ve got some bad news — it won’t work.
In Baltimore, Miami scored 28 points in the final approximately 12 minutes. This is the kind of scenario where you wonder if the Ravens can even get one first down or sustained possession in the fourth quarter (they really didn’t), whether we’re looking back upon that terrific “comeback” a little differently.
In Miami, against the Bills, Buffalo ran 90 plays and came away with 19 points. Even in the sweltering heat, the Bills were essentially running circles around the Dolphins but just couldn’t finish drives. And next time, that “Butt Punt” can always become a “Butt Touchdown.”
I like what the Dolphins have accomplished thus far. I like that they’ve been able to beat two legitimate playoff/championship contenders. Do I believe this success is sustainable after seeing how they’ve won so far? I would be lying if I said I did. Playoff football is part luck, and the majority is “we are going to impose our will on you.” It remains to be seen if the cardiac Dolphins can do the latter.
3
Kansas City Chiefs (2-1)
Why they’ll win it all: You know, that monstrous AFC West everyone was fretting about? It doesn’t seem so daunting at all! Nathaniel Hackett can barely keep the ship afloat in Denver as Russell Wilson cooks microwave dinners; the Chargers are, once again, decimated by injuries; and the Raiders have an 0-3 hole to climb out of.
All of that plays right into the Chiefs’ hands — another of the NFL’s more balanced teams in the early goings. After retooling around the defense and a “spread-the-wealth” offense with the departure of Tyreek Hill, the new-look Kansas City’s plan is moving swimmingly. For years, Pat Mahomes and Co. carried the Chiefs offense while a defense occasionally chimed in now and then with timely plays. Through three games in 2022, Kansas City has a top 10 offense and defense in DVOA.
So, now, the Big Red Machine can score on you and completely dictate terms on defense. Terrifying.
Why they won’t: The Chiefs are in a spot where, in defeats, it’s more that they beat themselves rather than the other team coming out on top. That’s what happened in Indianapolis, where one major special teams mistake (a Matt Ammendola missed field goal), one Travis Kelce drop in the end zone, and a miserable third-down offense (30 percent conversion rate) couldn’t put away a far inferior Colts team.
In the past, in grimy games like this, Kansas City could lean on stars like Hill to make something out of nothing. For now, until some other explosive player ascends (or if they do), the onus is even more on Mahomes to rescue the Chiefs. He might do it more often than most other quarterbacks, but he won’t do it 100 percent of the time — especially with less help. That missing Extra Special Something should alarm the Chiefs in a potential deep postseason run.
2
Buffalo Bills (2-1)
Why they’ll win it all: One unfortunate outing against a formidable division rival will not sour me on the Bills’ chances in the AFC. They are still the clear favorite in the conference. The only other team in this Super Bowl contender index I’ve compiled that can boast a top-six offense and defense efficiency-wise is the next team on this list. And Buffalo would only have to play them in the Big Game.
Thanks to an improved offensive line, Josh Allen is still a Terminator who is rarely torn asunder. Stefon Diggs is “HIM” — I won’t deny it, and the Bills can lean on him (no wordplay intended) as they please. And that defense — which has Von Miller leading the league in ESPN’s pass-rush win rate — will still harass quarterbacks to no end.
The Bills are a bona fide Super Bowl heavyweight until the ground beneath them collapses. I don’t think it will.
Why they won’t: As much as the Bills should maintain pole position in the AFC, finishing the job will be more complicated. Especially without a healthy defense. All-Pro caliber safety Micah Hyde is lost for the year, which hurts doubly when other secondary starters like Tre’Davious White (PUP to start the season) and Dane Jackson (neck injury) will be out for undisclosed times.
Josh Allen might be able to keep pace, step for step, and throw for throw with the other elite quarterbacks and offenses. But, eventually, the Bills’ defense will have to give him some breathing room and maybe even make a play or two. A decimated secondary might not have the capacity to do so.
1
Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)
Why they’ll win it all: Health permitting, the Eagles might have pro football’s best roster. A premium offensive line led by Lane Johnson and a top-notch defensive front spearheaded by Fletcher Cox and rookie Jordan Davis. A talented and deep group of skill players on both offense and defense with A.J. Brown and Darius Slay leading the way. And, of course, the incomparable Jalen Hurts — who has blossomed into an MVP-level quarterback in the early parts of his third NFL season.
Philadelphia is the only team that hasn’t run an offensive play while trailing in the second half. Through 12 quarters. There’s no chance they sustain that sort of impressive play, but it speaks to how well-built they are. It’s going to take a true titan to upend this squad head-to-head. But that task will become much more challenging when/if they clinch home-field in an otherwise weak NFC.
Why they won’t: A not-so-special special teams group.
Usually, the third phase isn’t something you think about a ton with the overall construct of a football team. Provided field position isn’t egregiously bad, and the kickers and punters do their jobs most of the time, special teams are an afterthought. Until they’re not. Until they’re costing you an entire season of work. Just ask the Packers last year against the 49ers. The Eagles might be dominant on offense and defense, but their special teams leave a lot to be desired.
Right now, Philadelphia’s third phase is:
- 28th in DVOA
- 28th in kickoff return average
- 25th in kickoff return coverage
- 23rd and 22nd in gross and net punt yardage
- And 23rd in punt return average
These are not flaws you consider or think of much when you’re sitting pretty at 3-0. They’re the kind that haunt you only after one big playoff kick return flips the field in your own house, and the other team buries a last-second field goal to upend your dream season. The Eagles would do well to start ensuring that isn’t their fate come winter.
