Novavax stock is trading at a two-year low amid slowly ramping use of its Covid vaccine, dubbed Nuvaxovid, in the U.S.
The Food and Drug Administration signed off on Nuvaxovid in July, six months after Novavax asked the agency to authorize the regimen for emergency use. Since then, just 6,278 people have received two doses of the vaccine, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
In total, Novavax has delivered 772,900 doses of the shot in the U.S.
CFRA Research analyst Stewart Glickman previously noted supply and timing challenges for Novavax. An important component of the vaccine comes from the bark of a tree found commonly in Chile. Harvesting these trees is highly regulated.
"Novavax partly chalked up the second-quarter revenue miss to timing issues, with sales leaking into the third quarter," he said in an August note to clients. "But we think the company is in the penalty box and we would now characterize the investment thesis as a 'show me' story."
Novavax Stock: A Limited Launch
Novavax was already at a disadvantage at the time of its U.S. launch of Nuvaxovid. Pfizer and Moderna won their first authorizations in December 2020. Novavax stock ran up with the duo through February 2021.
The CDC also guided to a limited U.S. launch of Nuvaxovid. Not all providers received the regimen and preordering wasn't available for the shot. The U.S. doses were to be "directed to providers with expected demand among unvaccinated patients."
In the U.S., that includes about 10% of adults.
Nuvaxovid use rates are sure to be bigger abroad. The shot won its first authorizations last November in Indonesia and the Philippines.
Light Sales Expectations
Still, CFRA's Glickman doesn't have high hopes for 2022-23 sales — and that's reflected in the performance of Novavax stock. After missing second-quarter expectations, shares have generally trended down, according to MarketSmith.com.
Glickman now expects $1.8 billion in 2022 sales and $2.2 billion next year. Following its miss, Novavax cut its full-year guidance to $2 billion to $2.3 billion in sales.
On today's stock market, Novavax stock tumbled 13.3% to 22.44.
Representatives of the company didn't immediately return a request for comment.
This story has been updated to reflect the correct number of Nuvaxovid deliveries in the U.S.
Follow Allison Gatlin on Twitter at @IBD_AGatlin.
