Each week this college football season, BetFTW will take a look at the 2022 Heisman Trophy race and break down the contenders. Check back each Monday as the best college football players in the country jockey for position with both oddsmakers and bettors. Preseason odds can be found here and Week 12 here.
All year long we waited for C.J. Stroud to go out and make his Heisman Trophy statement with a signature performance. The betting favorite for the majority of the year just had to do something—anything—to justify his credentials and show voters his odds were based on more than his potential.
It turns out we should’ve been paying more attention to Southern California than Ohio State.
On Saturday, in a primetime game against Notre Dame, USC’s Caleb Williams went out and made himself the easy choice to win this year’s award in spectacular fashion. He may have lifted the Trojans into a College Football Playoff spot in the process.
Before we get to this week’s odds, a quick reset. Here’s a blind look at the resumes for the top Heisman contenders:
- Player A: 4,332 passing yards, 43 touchdowns, 4 INT, 67.9 CMP%, 175.5 RTG, 81 carries, 0 rushing yards, 3 rushing TD
- Player B: 3,340 passing yards, 37 TD, 6 INT, 66.2 CMP%, 176.2 RTG, 35 carries, 74 rushing yards, 0 rushing TD
- Player C: 3,712 passing yards, 34 TD, 3 INT, 65.8 CMP%, 168.5 RTG, 97 carries, 351 rushing yards, 10 rushing TD
- Player D: 3,070 passing yards, 29 TD, 3 INT, 66.6 CMP%, 171.3 RTG, 97 carries, 294 rushing yards, 5 rushing TD
Player A: Bryce Young 2021 (Heisman Winner)
Player B: C.J. Stroud
Player C: Caleb Williams
Player D: Max Duggan
But what those numbers don’t tell you are just the levels of pure wizardry Williams possesses. My colleague Michelle Martinelli has an incredible breakdown of Williams’ skillset here, but I’ll simplify things a bit more:
Williams has the “It Factor”. When you watch him scramble, extend plays and make a laser pas on the run, you know you’re watching a player operate at his peak. The USC star has been showing it all year. Saturday’s statement performance against Notre Dame was more about cementing his status than proving he deserved to be in New York. And Williams did just that.
After going virtually stride-for-stride with Stroud all season long on the Heisman board, Williams’ regular season finale extinguished whatever hope the Buckeyes star still had of winning the award.
Let’s take a quick look at how the favorites fared last week.
Georgia QB Stetson Bennett (+10000)
A great, but not spectacular regular season for Bennett ended with a 37-14 win over Georgia Tech that felt way more distressing than the final score suggests.
Bennett completed 10 of 18 passes for 140 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for another 21 yards on five carries. Not enough to win the Heisman (or get invited to New York) but it keeps Georgia alive in the hunt for a national title, which is really all that matters now.
TCU QB Max Duggan (+2500)
Max Duggan hasn’t gotten nearly enough attention as he deserves. Watch him play and you can’t help but come away impressed with his toughness and leadership.
That should change if/when the Horned Frogs reach the the College Football Playoffs but there’s no doubt Duggan should at least get an invite to New York before then.
He finished up the regular season in the Big 12 by torching Iowa State to the tune of 212 passing yards and three touchdowns in a 62-14 victory.
Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud (+2000)
C.J Stroud had the stage all set to go out and run away with the Heisman. Then he got outplayed by Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy at Ohio Stadium in the biggest game of the season.
That’s about as tough of a hang as you’ll find, and the fact that Stroud’s odds ballooned to their lowest mark of the year confirm it.
Stroud did pass for 349 yards and two touchdowns, but his two interceptions were complete back-breakers for the Buckeyes as the Wolverines ran off with a 45-23 win that was jaw-dropping for all the wrong reasons in Ohio.
USC QB Caleb Williams (-2500)
What more is there to say?
It’s a true shame Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker suffered a season-ending injury because he seems like the only other candidate who could’ve pushed Williams for the award—and the competition would’ve been fierce.
But this season belongs to Williams. He and head coach Lincoln Riley woke up a sleeping giant much quicker than anyone could’ve imagined and they deserve the praise coming their way.
In defeating Notre Dame, Williams completed 18 of 22 passes for 232 yards and one touchdown while rushing for 35 yards and three touchdowns on nine carries.
