In February, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge fund manager, said that civil war is coming.
“The U.S. appears to be on a classic path toward some form of civil war,” he wrote in a LinkedIn posting. “What is obvious from looking at many cycles of rises and declines of different historical cases is that the combination of:
1) financial problems due to not having enough money that lead to large deficits, high taxes, a lot of money printing, and high inflation, and
2) large wealth and values gaps in which people are more willing to fight for what they want than to compromise leads to some sort of fighting for control, rather than compromising according to the rules,” Dalio said.
That’s a “civil war, though these fights can be more or less violent,” he said.
“The current financial conditions and irreconcilable differences in desires and values are consistent with the ingredients leading to some form of civil war,” Dalio said.
“We are seeing that they are leading to much greater amounts of populism/extremism and conflicts between the right and the left, which is classic. Both sides are fighting to win at all costs and are unwilling to compromise.”
The Public Weighs In
Dalio isn’t the only one who thinks civil war may be coming. In a poll conducted by the Economist and research firm YouGov, more than 2 of 5 (43%) of Americans said they saw a civil war as likely in the next 10 years.
A total of 14% see it as very likely, and 29% see it as somewhat likely. The survey, conducted Aug. 20 to 23, included 1,500 U.S. citizens.
Given the fracturing between right and left in this country, it’s no wonder that two-thirds (66%) of Americans say that our political divisions have worsened since the beginning of 2021.
The outlook isn’t good either, with 3 of every 5 (62%) expecting an increase in political divisions and 60% anticipating a rise in political violence in the next few years.
Soros Sees a Global Threat
Meanwhile, in March, another hedge fund legend, George Soros, expressed concern that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping could spark a world war.
After securing the backing of Xi, “Putin set about realizing his life’s dream with incredible brutality” in attacking Ukraine, Soros wrote on Project Syndicate.
“Having developed an idée fixe, he appears to have lost touch with reality…. Putin seems to have gone literally mad,” Soros said.
“He appears to be acting without any constraint. He is throwing the entire Russian army into the battle and ignoring all the rules of war, not least by indiscriminately bombing the civilian population.”
Our only hope: “that Putin and Xi will be removed from power before they can destroy our civilization.” Soros said, “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 was the beginning of a third world war..."
