Last week Labour leader Keir Starmer set out the six ‘first steps’ that he would aim to deliver in government should his party win the coming General Election. These included commitments on the economy, NHS, border security, energy, anti-social behaviour and hiring more teachers.
Our latest round of Ipsos data, published today, suggests it is the NHS that tops voter concerns. When asked what issues a Starmer government should prioritise in its first 6 months, 63% chose improving the NHS, dealing with the cost of living was second on 44%.
Public concern about the NHS is nothing new. It is consistently a ‘top two’ issue at elections and an issue Labour tend to own. And yet Labour have regularly lost elections in recent times, posing the question just how much of a winning issue can it ever be for them?
However, whilst public concern about the NHS is nothing new, there are signs that the strength of concern is. Ipsos polling for The Evening Standard last October showed 64% expected the NHS to get worse in the next few years. With the public more pessimistic about the NHS than other policy areas and levels of pessimism the highest we’ve seen going back to 2002.
This has political consequences. Our analysis shows that the NHS is the top issue for those voters currently saying they will switch from Conservatives to Labour next time – a crucial group. When asked which party had the best policies on the issue last October, Labour led the Conservatives by 22 points overall. The signs are it could be a winning issue for the party this time.
The hardest part may well be delivering in office. Especially in the short term considering the myriad of issues the NHS faces, such as funding, the ageing population, workforce issues and its complex inter-relationship with other policy issues such as social care. Labour may well be able to build confidence in its agenda for government by setting out a clear long-term plan early – but need to take the public with them, especially with trust in politics generally in short supply.
This parliament has showed what happens to voting coalitions where a government doesn’t deliver on what matters to them – they can disintegrate fast. Should Labour make it to government, they will hope to avoid a similar fate.
