WASHINGTON — High-profile candidates with national followings. Fierce debates over a new election law. And deep divisions over former President Donald Trump’s future political role.
Georgia is right back in the middle of the political spotlight.
One year out from the midterm elections, Georgia is poised to be one of the most hotly contested states, already attracting massive amounts of attention and money from around the country, particularly for the races for U.S. Senate and governor.
It’s not a situation Georgia has been in historically. Prior to the 2020 election, Democrats and Republicans generally did not view it as a top battleground, devoting their time and resources to more competitive states.
But after Democrats’ breakthrough victories in Georgia the last election, members of both parties are now looking to the state — where national debates over Democratic control of Washington, the direction of the GOP and voting rights are playing out in a pronounced way — as a bellwether for the broader political environment in 2022.
“Every cycle, you have one or two states where all of the trends converge,” said Jared Leopold, a veteran Democratic strategist. “Georgia has all of the elements to be the testing ground of the 2022 midterms.”
After Georgia voted Democratic in the presidential election for the first time since 1992 and elected Democratic senators for the first time since 2000, the state’s 2022 campaigns will serve as a key indicator of whether Republicans can reverse the losses they experienced, especially in the suburbs, during Trump’s tenure.
“There’s one school of thought that it’s an anomaly, and another that it’s the beginning of the state changing and it’s here to stay. I think it might be somewhere in the middle,” said Chip Lake, a Georgia Republican strategist. “We’re a huge focal point for what’s going to happen in 2022.”
SENATE SHOWDOWN
Much of the early focus is on the Senate race, as Sen. Raphael Warnock is already gearing up to defend his seat not even 10 months after he helped deliver control of the chamber for Democrats in a special run-off election.
Both parties see the outcome of Warnock’s re-election race as critical to determining which party controls the Senate, which is now evenly divided, and have already run ads in the state.
Donors around the country are taking note. In the third fundraising quarter of the year, Warnock’s campaign brought in $9.5 million, the most of any Senate candidate in the country.
During that three-month period, 85% of the donations Warnock received of at least $200 came from outside Georgia, according to a McClatchy analysis of campaign finance filings. California accounted for 22% of those donations, more than any other state.
Warnock’s campaign has explicitly mentioned the stakes of the Georgia race in online fundraising appeals.
“I’m the most vulnerable Senate Democrat up for reelection, and I need your help,” reads one Facebook ad, which urges potential donors to “keep Georgia blue and defend our Democratic majority in the Senate.”
Meanwhile, top Republicans are starting to coalesce around one of Warnock’s Republican challengers, former University of Georgia football player Herschel Walker.
Even though Trump encouraged Walker to run for Senate for months, some Republicans were hesitant to line up behind the first-time candidate. The Associated Press reported over the summer that Walker threatened his ex-wife on multiple occasions and exaggerated his successes as a business owner.
But despite their early misgivings, Republican strategists say they are impressed with the campaign Walker has run so far. Walker raised $3.7 million in the third quarter, the most of any Republican Senate challenger across the country.
During that time, 57% of the donations he received of at least $200 were from out of state. After Georgia, Walker received the most donations from Texas, where he once played for the Dallas Cowboys.
Walker also won endorsements this week from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky as well as two other Republican leaders, Sens. John Thune of South Dakota and John Barrasso of Wyoming. Other notable Georgia Republican Senate candidates include state Agriculture Secretary Gary Black, former Navy SEAL Latham Saddler and businessman Kelvin King.
National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Rick Scott, who is not intervening in primaries, recently highlighted Georgia as one the party’s best opportunities to flip a Senate seat in 2022, along with Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire.
“We have good reason to believe we can win in Georgia,” Scott said.
HEATED RACE FOR GOVERNOR
While Republicans appear to be unifying in the Georgia Senate race, their divisions are only widening in the gubernatorial election, due in large part to Trump’s influence.
Trump has repeatedly criticized Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who is up for re-election next year, for refusing to go along with his attempts to overturn Georgia’s 2020 election results. The Republican Party in Cobb County, once a GOP stronghold in the Atlanta suburbs, voted to censure Kemp earlier this month. And former Sen. David Perdue, a Trump ally, is considering challenging Kemp in the party’s primary, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported.
Some Republicans are growing increasingly concerned this fissure will provide Democrats with an opening to win a governor’s race in Georgia for the first time since 1998.
“There’s a real divide in the party on the grassroots level, and that division is providing Democrats with a tremendous opportunity they should not have,” said Jason Shepherd, the former chairman of the Cobb County Republican Party. “It doesn’t seem like we’re doing anything to prepare for the 2022 elections besides litigate the 2020 election.”
Democrats are waiting to see if Stacey Abrams, who has become a national leader on voting rights since narrowly losing the 2018 gubernatorial race, will mount another campaign.
Abrams has been politically active this fall, launching a nationwide speaking tour and campaigning for fellow Democrat Terry McAuliffe ahead of next week’s Virginia gubernatorial election, while continuing to lead her voting rights group Fair Fight. An Abrams candidacy would immediately vault the Georgia governor’s race into one of the most contested in the country.
Jacquelyn Bettadapur, who chairs the Cobb County Democratic Party, said it would be “deflating” for the party if Abrams doesn’t enter the race.
“If she doesn’t run, I’m just going to retire,” Bettadapur added with a laugh.
Bettadapur also said some Georgia Democrats are “frustrated” by a lack of action in Washington on issues such as voting rights. As Republicans in Georgia and other states around the country enacted stricter election laws this year, Democrats hoped their party’s lawmakers would counter by approving national voting rights legislation.
But those efforts have been stymied in the Senate. Bettadapur said an Abrams campaign would help re-energize the party’s base, particularly around the issue of voting rights.
With all these varying dynamics at play, members of both parties see Georgia emerging as a microcosm of the country’s political mood.
“It puts Georgia in a very peculiar situation,” said Shepherd. “It’s one we haven’t really been in over the quarter century I’ve been in politics.”
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(McClatchy data reporter Ben Wieder contributed reporting.)
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