WASHINGTON _ Michael Bloomberg isn't competing in the Iowa caucuses. Monday's outcome, however, could determine whether his unorthodox presidential campaign has a viable path to victory in the Democratic race.
Bloomberg allies and Democratic operatives say for the former New York City mayor to have a shot at the nomination, Iowa and the other three February contests would have to produce a muddled result, leaving the current national polling leader, Joe Biden, in a weakened position.
That could provide a lane for Bloomberg to swoop in as the moderate alternative that Biden was supposed to be, countering whichever progressive candidates are still standing _ particularly Sen. Bernie Sanders.
"If Biden wins Iowa and then New Hampshire ... it may well be game over," for Bloomberg, Steve Rattner, an ally of the former mayor, said on MSNBC this week. However, Rattner continued, if Biden "does poorly in Iowa, that raises Mike Bloomberg as the possible alternative to Bernie Sanders, and that's exactly the calculus."
Skipping the early voting states is a risky and unprecedented strategy: Every Democratic presidential nominee since 1992 has won one of the first two states to vote, Iowa or New Hampshire, in the primary.
But Bloomberg is betting the roughly quarter billion dollars he's already spent on ads nationally, the campaign organization he's built up in delegate-rich states that vote later in the process, and the party's establishment's wariness of Sanders, an avowed democratic socialist, would allow him to gain ground quickly if Biden is no longer seen as a formidable candidate.
If Bloomberg's bid is premised on the rise of Sanders or, somewhat less likely, Elizabeth Warren, supporters of the two senators also think Bloomberg makes an ideal foil in the primary, in large part because of his vast personal wealth and the way he's using it in his campaign.
"I think it's the dream scenario for Warren or Bernie, to be in a two-person race where the other person is Mike Bloomberg," said Dan Kalik, a senior political adviser for the progressive advocacy group MoveOn. "To run in the Democratic primary by trying to self funding a campaign is on its face offensive to the core message that Democrats have been running on and winning on."
Asked if the Sanders campaign shares that assessment, an aide to the campaign said only, "Taking on the wealthy elites and the billionaires, that's our message."
Some Democrats, however, fear such an ideological showdown risks creating a rift even deeper than the one that emerged in 2016. There's the possibility that Bloomberg would need to force a contested convention to win the nomination. If that were to occur, even the threat of four more years of Trump may not be enough to bring Democrats together.
"I think if Bloomberg tried to spend his billions to torpedo a Sanders or Warren frontrunner, a lot of people would feel the nomination was rigged," said Waleed Shahid, a spokesman for Justice Democrats, which supports left-leaning candidates.
Bloomberg has gained limited traction in the polls so far. He currently sits at around 8% in the RealClearPolitics national polling average, placing him fourth in the Democratic race. His favorability rating is underwater with Democratic voters in many surveys.
Still, rival campaigns and Democratic strategists aren't counting Bloomberg out.
"We have never seen this kind of money ... in any presidential race and we don't know what impact it will have," said vetern Democratic operative Bob Shrum, now the director of the University of Southern California Center for the Political Future.
Bloomberg backers argue that his self-funding means he is not beholden to special interests or the party's traditional donor class.
"For me, what I appreciate is it's not coming from people with vested interests," said Stockton, Calif., Mayor Michael Tubbs, who is serving as a national co-chair of Bloomberg's campaign.
Bloomberg's allies also note that he has used his wealth to advance Democratic causes and candidates, particularly since leaving office in 2013.
Rep. Stephanie Murphy of Florida, who drew support from Bloomberg-backed gun control groups in her hard-fought 2016 victory, credits him with helping Democrats win back the House majority in 2018.
"I have seen that his support of Democratic candidates has made an impact in the makeup of the House and I've also seen his support of organizations like Everytown make an impact on gun safety legislation," said Murphy, one of six members of Congress to endorse Bloomberg.
In 2020, Bloomberg's campaign is wagering it can build up similar goodwill by investing early in key battleground states such as Florida and Pennsylvania as well as states that don't tend to draw much attention from presidential candidates, like Vermont, which features a contested governor's race this fall.
Bloomberg has already promised that no matter who wins the nomination, he will continue to maintain his campaign organization through the general election to help the party against Trump.
While the other campaigns blanket Iowa, and then New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, Bloomberg plans to continue his unconventional campaign strategy in February, hopscotching across the country from Super Tuesday state to Super Tuesday state, with visits to states that vote later in March and April mixed in. He'll be campaigning in California as Iowans caucus on Monday.
And he's methodically targeting key constituencies. In just the past week, the campaign has rolled out a pro-Israel agenda in Florida, a proposal to boost Latino's economic security in Texas, a promise to pursue statehood for Puerto Rico and a plan to cement LGBTQ protections.
At every stop, he talks up the need to "unite this country," while aiming his fire at Trump.
If the race narrows to a two-candidate contest against Sanders or Warren, however, Bloomberg's campaign acknowledges he'll have to take on his liberal opponent more directly. For their part, Sanders, Warren and their allies on the left have not been shy about attacking Bloomberg and his record in City Hall as well as at the Wall Street media conglomerate he built.
Some leading Democrats aren't overly concerned about a possible Sanders versus Bloomberg slugfest, however. If it's an ideological fight about policy issues like healthcare or taxation, "that is a perfectly legitimate discussion and debate to have," said Randi Weingarten, president of the powerful American Federation of Teachers labor union. "The issue becomes when a person says someone who believes in one or the other position is a bad person."
Weingarten has plenty of ideological fights to pick with Bloomberg. The two were on opposite sides of many battles in New York City when Weingarten was head of the local teachers union. But she was quick to say she and her members would be able to support him if he became the Democratic nominee.
And Bloomberg's vast investment in Democratic causes like climate change and gun safety is one of the things she cited. "He's been out there spending his money on things that are really socially important," said Weingarten. "We've had rich guys before run who became tremendous populists. Think FDR."
