Daniel Andrews has not announced plans to resign – but the first shot may have been fired this week in a fight over who will take over leadership positions in the Victorian Labor party when he does.
While unlikely to cause long-term damage to either the premier, or its subject, minister Lily D’Ambrosio, the leak of branch stacking allegations to a newspaper has been described by state MPs as an escalation in the war between Labor’s factions as they begin planning for a future without Andrews at the helm.
Here’s what we know so far.
What happened?
D’Ambrosio – a prominent member of the premier’s Socialist Left faction – came under fire on Tuesday after the leaking of documents to The Australian alleging her branch of the Labor party had forged the signatures of deceased people on membership forms.
The report also alleged the Lalor South branch had shed almost 90% of its members after new rules preventing cash payments were introduced.
Another story, on Wednesday, alleged at least nine members of the branch could not recall paying for their Labor memberships, in an apparent breach of the party’s rules.
The reporting suggested D’Ambrosio was involved in the practice of branch stacking, which involves recruiting or signing up members to a political party’s local branch to build factional power and influence candidate pre-selection. While not illegal, it is against Labor party rules.
D’Ambrosio has denied wrongdoing. She has since joined the Brunswick branch where she lives.
Why does this sound familiar?
In 2020, Victorian Labor’s moderate faction was essentially wiped out after the Age revealed it was embroiled in a branch stacking scandal. Four ministers lost their jobs, including powerbroker Adem Somyurek, who quit the party before Andrews and federal Labor leader Anthony Albanese moved to expel him from the party. Somyurek continues to deny any wrongdoing.
Andrews referred that matter to the state’s anti-corruption watchdog, the Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission (Ibac), and ordered a federal takeover of the Victorian Labor branch.
What was the response this time?
The latest round of allegations sparked calls for the sacking of D’Ambrosio by the opposition, who also referred the matter to Ibac. However, it is unlikely to meet the threshold required for the agency to be able to launch an investigation.
At a press conference on Tuesday, Andrews said no comparison could be drawn between the latest report and the 2020 branch stacking scandal.
He described D’Ambrosio as a “person of character and integrity” and told reporters: “If you’ve got an allegation to make, then make it.”
Speaking as she arrived at parliament later that day, D’Ambrosio said she had “always abided by the rules”.
“I reject any wrongdoing in those inferences that were reported in one media outlet this morning,” she said.
So, why is it significant then?
Several of D’Ambrosio’s factional allies told Guardian Australia they believed a senior party figure leaked the documents as part of the intensifying war between the Socialist Left and the party’s right.
One Labor MP said they had no doubt the leak was an “inside job”, given only a small group of people were privy to the information.
“I haven’t seen such a blatant hit on a minister in a very long time,” they said
Under Andrews’ leadership, the left of the party has become increasingly powerful on several fronts. Late last year, seven right-aligned members, including treasurer Tim Pallas, joined the left and at state conference in June, the faction managed to secure a majority on Victorian Labor’s powerful administrative committee.
Within parliament, the faction also overpowers the right. Last year, Andrews was able to appoint his factional ally, Jacinta Allan, as his deputy – despite the role usually going to someone from the opposite faction to the premier.
The break in convention was justified by those on the left as a temporary arrangement, a form of succession planning for Andrews resignation. (The premier continues to maintain he will serve a full term but it’s widely expected he will quit before the 2026 election ).
Under the plan, Allan is expected to succeed Andrews and a member of the right – most likely public transport minister Ben Carroll – will take on the deputy position.
But according to some MPs – D’Ambrosio has been sounding out colleagues about becoming the deputy premier. Those within her own faction are doubtful of this – describing her as a “loyal foot solider” and skilled minister rather than someone with leadership ambitions – but it’s clearly led to some angst on the right.
“The leak is essentially a warning shot from the right to the left not to get too ahead of itself,” another Labor MP said. “Don’t expect it to be the last shot either.”
