As the presidential election heats up, it's important for voters to know how a potential Kamala Harris administration might grapple with the ailing Social Security and Medicare programs. This is particularly relevant when you consider these government programs impact the lives of so many people.
Social Security accounted for $1.4 trillion, or 21% of the government's budget in 2023, covering approximately 182 million workers. Medicare is the second largest budget item (as part of the larger Health spending category), accounting for $848 billion, or roughly 12%, of the budget last year, with Medicare enrollment topping 63 million.
As we move closer to the 2024 presidential election on Tuesday, November 5, we're taking a look at where the two candidates stand on Social Security and Medicare. With Republican nominee Donald Trump having already served one term in office, we've already seen some of his actions as president. Democratic nominee Harris' position has also been articulated in her many years in the Senate and in her current role as vice president.
We look at both what she said about Social Security and Medicare in her time in the Senate and while serving as vice president, and what she has said on the campaign trail more recently.
Please see our separate article that looks at Trump's stances on Social Security and Medicare. (Read Donald Trump's Stances on Social Security and Medicare).
The stakes for Social Security
The Social Security trust fund is projected to become insolvent in November 2035, one year later than previously projected, according to the Social Security trustees' 2024 report. The program will live on after that time, but retirees will likely only receive 83% of their full benefits, unless congressional lawmakers adopt changes before then, which might involve increasing Social Security payroll tax and trimming benefits.
Despite the fact that Social Security is in danger of running out of cash, Medicare’s finances have improved slightly over the past year. However, Medicare, a federal healthcare program for seniors ages 65 and older and for people getting disability benefits, is also expected to encounter a cash crunch in 2036.
Social Security, established by President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s administration in 1935, provides monthly income to more than 67 million beneficiaries, including retired Americans, disabled workers, survivors of deceased workers, and families. However, with approximately 10,000 people entering the Social Security program each day due to the retirement of baby boomers, it’s not surprising the system is overburdened.
The stakes for Medicare
Medicare is a U.S. national health insurance program for people age 65 or older and younger people with disabilities. It began in 1965 under the Social Security Administration and is now administered by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS).
The name "Medicare" originally referred to a program that provided medical care for families of military personnel as part of the Dependents' Medical Care Act, passed in 1956. Then in in January 1961, President Dwight D. Eisenhower held the first White House Conference on Aging where a health care program for social security beneficiaries was proposed. For years, attempts were made to pass a bill providing healthcare for the elderly in Congress, all without success. However, in 1963, a bill providing for both an increase in Social Security benefits and for Medicare passed the Senate.
Today, Medicare serves more than 63 million people. It is not private insurance and it doesn't offer plans for families and couples. According to the annual Medicare Trustees reports, Medicare covers about half of healthcare expenses of enrollees.
The remaining costs of healthcare are almost always covered by taking additional private insurance and/or by joining a public Medicare Part C and/or Medicare Part D health plan. These same trustees now project that Medicare's hospital-insurance benefits will run out of money in 2036, if not sooner.
Biden/Harris Administration on Social Security and Medicare
Social Security
Under the Biden administration, Harris supported the retention and expansion of Social Security, with the objective to reform the program. She also endorsed President Joe Biden's plan to raise taxes on Americans earning $400,000 or more per year. Currently, only $168,600 of an individual's earnings are subject to Social Security taxes.
Before Biden dropped out of the presidential race, the Biden-Harris administration said it would "increase Social Security funding by 9% from the 2023 enacted level." The goal of the increase was to improve customer service at SSA's field offices, realign state disability determination services and teleservice centers for retirees for individuals with disabilities and their families.
Harris' running mate is Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Minnesota is one of only 12 states that taxes Social Security benefits, which means less money in many seniors' pockets despite high inflation and the rising costs they face on their fixed incomes. However, in 2023, Walz did increase the state tax exemption for Social Security benefits.
Medicare
The Biden-Harris administration recently announced the list of negotiated prices on 10 best-selling drugs, saving Medicare beneficiaries $1.5 billion in out-of-pocket costs in the program's first year. People enrolled in Medicare with Medicare Part D prescription drug coverage are expected to save $1.5 billion in out-of-pocket costs beginning in 2026. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the program will save Medicare $100 billion over the next ten years.
The new prices are the result of the first set of negotiations between Medicare and drug makers as a result of the Inflation Reduction Act, which President Biden signed into law in 2022.
What Harris has said about Social Security
Harris has yet to release her official policy proposals on Social Security, but has made it clear that she strongly opposes any plan that would reduce or cut Social Security benefits. She commented on her support of the program on Facebook on August 14.
She wrote: "For 89 years, Social Security has made the difference between poverty or peace of mind for millions of seniors, people with disabilities, and other beneficiaries. Trump is a threat to these bedrock programs. As President, I will protect and expand them."
In February 2019, then-Sen. Harris co-sponsored the Social Security Expansion Act with Democratic hopeful Bernie Sanders. The bill proposed extending the Social Security payroll tax to annual incomes over $250,000 from the $132,900 limit at that time ($168,600 in 2024, adjusted for inflation). The bill would also have expanded the Social Security tax to include investment income.
However, Harris has implicitly repudiated one part of the bill, instead sticking with Biden’s commitment to not raise taxes on those making $400,000 or less. The DNC platform supports not raising Social Security taxes on the wealthiest Americans, but does not define either who they are or how a tax increase will work.
What Harris has said about Medicare
Over the years, Harris has jumped in, and then out, of the Medicare for All argument. While running as a candidate for president in 2019, she discussed her position on Medicare.
In part, Harris' change in position was due to an increased pressure from labor leaders who refused to forfeit the favorable plans they had fought for and won from employers at the bargaining table. This also allowed Harris to push for a new system without raising taxes, which was another pressure point with parts of the electorate.
While her views may have evolved since, in her July 2019 blog published on Medium, Harris said then: “Under my Medicare for All plan, we will expand the program to include other benefits Americans desperately need that will save money in the long run, such as an expanded mental health program including telehealth and easier access to early diagnosis and treatment, and innovative patient programs to help people identify the right doctor and understand how to navigate the health system.”
To get there, her plan included three steps:
- First, when we pass my plan, all Americans will immediately have the ability to buy into Medicare.
- Second, we will set up an expanded Medicare system, with a 10-year phase-in period.
- Third, in setting up this plan, we will allow private insurers to offer Medicare plans as a part of this system that adhere to strict Medicare requirements on costs and benefits.
In seeking middle ground between all-in Bernie Sanders and President Biden, Harris says she is more apt to favor a "Medicare for All" plan that also preserves private insurance, and will fund the program with tax hikes on Wall Street trading.
However, recently the Harris’ team said she no longer backs the plan, which became increasingly unpopular with Democrats as Biden vocally opposed it. Instead, Biden campaigned on expanding the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which Harris supported as his vice president. She hasn't revealed her platform on either platform on the Harris for President website.
Former President Trump said at a July 24th rally in Charlotte that Harris cast the tie-breaking vote to cut Medicare when she voted for the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022. However, critics say that is not correct, and Politifact has rated Trump's comments about Harris seeking to cut Medicare (or Social Security) as False.
The Inflation Reduction Act, which Harris supports, is not seen as cutting beneficiaries' services. "There are big shifts in who’s paying for what,” said Andrew Mulcahy, a senior health economist at the Rand Corp., a nonpartisan think tank, as reported by Politifact. “But that doesn’t mean they’re getting any less. If anything, they’ll have better access to drugs.”
Bottom line
It may be too early to definitively predict how a President Harris would deal with the encumbered Social Security and Medicare programs. Yet because these programs impact the lives of millions of Americans, coupled with the fact that 63% of voters deem Social Security and Medicare “very important” when determining how they will vote, democratic presidential nominee Harris will no doubt be compelled to lay out her plan soon. Until then, we wait.
