KEY POINTS
- A Polymarket contract saw Harris' chances climb to 45% compared to 41% for Biden
- Many commenting traders said Harris has better chances of winning in 2028, not this year
- The Biden administration has often been deemed "hostile" toward the crypto industry
The Democratic Party is under increasing pressure to make a decision regarding its presidential nominee following U.S. President Joe Biden's unimpressive performance against GOP frontrunner Donald Trump during their first debate, and on popular decentralized cryptocurrency prediction market platform Polymarket, Vice President Kamala Harris' odds are up.
In a Polymarket contract that asked traders which Democrat has the highest chance to become the Democratic Party's 2024 presidential nominee, traders bet on Harris to have a 45% chance, compared to 41% for Biden. Traders went on to give former First Lady Michelle Obama a 4% chance, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom logged a 3% chance of winning the nomination.
The figures change fast, depending on the number of people betting on world events. Users of the platform buy and sell shares using various cryptocurrencies to bet on the odds of future events.
Polymarket traders have since expressed their views in the comments section of the event. Many commenters noted that Harris has better chances of winning in 2028 instead of trying to replace Biden this year since by then, people will be "tired of Trump politics."
The numbers from the contract are very different from a Republican Nominee 2024 contract that didn't even give other GOP members a chance against Trump. Traders gave Trump a 99% chance, versus 1% for former contenders Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis.
The latest data from Polymarket comes amid increasing calls on Biden to reverse his administration's stance on the crypto industry. While the Trump campaign has apparently acknowledged crypto's place in politics, Biden's campaign appears to still be cautious about the matter.
Earlier this week, the Chamber of Progress, a U.S. tech trade group, urged the President to "support" positive crypto legislation if he wants to have a shot at a second term. The tech coalition noted that Millennial and Gen Z voters are "overwhelmingly" serious about crypto.
The Biden campaign has yet to officially make statements signaling a reversal from the "hostile" approach of the administration toward the digital assets space. On the other hand, a senior advisor to the president attended a Wednesday roundtable with some prominent crypto leaders to discuss their concerns.
Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna of California hosted the meeting that was attended by two other Democratic lawmakers. Among the crypto figures present in the meeting were Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, Bitcoin advocate Mark Cuban, and Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal.
