A recent survey conducted by Quinnipiac University after the Democratic National Convention has revealed a close race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump among likely voters nationwide. The poll indicates Harris leading at 49%, with Trump closely behind at 47%, a result that falls within the margin of sampling error, suggesting no clear frontrunner in the race.
This survey marks the first time Quinnipiac has reported results among likely voters, making direct comparisons to past polling from the school challenging. Nationally, the poll shows Harris and Trump tied at 45% each among political independents. Notably, there is a significant gender gap in the results, with women favoring Harris at 58% to 37%, while men lean towards Trump at 57% to 39%.
Harris holds advantages among younger voters, with 52% support from those aged 18-34, and among Black voters, with 75% backing her compared to 20% for Trump. However, these leads are narrower than President Joe Biden's performance among 2020 voters nationally, as per exit polls. The poll also reveals a tie between Trump and Harris among Hispanic voters, with both candidates garnering 48% support.
Enthusiasm among supporters is higher for Harris, with 75% of her backers expressing strong enthusiasm compared to 68% among Trump supporters. Trump leads Harris in handling key issues such as the economy, inflation, immigration, and the Israel-Hamas conflict. On the other hand, Harris outperforms Trump on climate change, abortion, democracy preservation, and gun violence.
Both candidates are evenly split on issues like crime, national crises, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the US Supreme Court. The poll, conducted from August 23-27 via phone with a random national sample of 1,611 likely voters, carries a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.
