State elections are not always of great interest to people beyond the borders, but today’s South Australian poll is getting more attention than usual as it comes in the lead-up to the May federal election.
The latest poll shows Labor poised to tip out the Marshall government after just one term in power. It shows a swing of about 8%, putting Labor ahead 56 to 44 on a two-party preferred score.
That election-winning lead is slightly bigger than the one federal Labor currently enjoys over the Coalition.
Premier Steven Marshall’s government is clinging to minority power with just 22 seats of 47 in the House of Assembly after three of his MPs quit to join the crossbench. Labor holds 19 and there are six independents in the mix.
Haydon Manning, an adjunct associate professor in politics, policy and global affairs at Flinders University, says there are many unknowns about the SA election outcome, and even more about what it might mean federally.
He says it’s unusually hard to predict. That’s partly because of the polling – pollsters adjusted their methods after predicting a federal Labor win in 2019. It’s also because the swings are never uniform across the board.
Each electorate – even each booth – can be swayed by hyperlocal issues.
“The consensus is clearly that it’s with Labor. But do we believe the margin’s as big as it is?” Manning said.
“It’s really hard to read.”
Marshall and his Labor opponent, Peter Malinauskas, had a busy final day of campaigning on Friday.
Marshall faced questions about his decision to open the then Covid-free state’s borders in November – he opened them in time for Christmas, knowing the pandemic would follow. The state was then hit with a wave of Omicron that saw many having to isolate for the festive season.
“There’s no doubt that many businesses, many individuals have made sacrifices … but those sacrifices have kept our state safe and kept our economy strong,” he told the ABC.
Malinauskas has attacked the government over ambulance ramping, a highly visible and highly emotive outward sign of trouble inside hospitals, and an issue that is dominating talkback radio. The government has attacked Malinauskas for only releasing Labor’s costings on Thursday, while spruiking its own economic credentials and talking up new investment in space and cutting edge technologies.
The pair have bickered about costings of their policies, each accusing the other of lacking credibility.
Local issues such as swimming pools, public transport and development decisions can swing different seats, and bigger pledges such as Labor’s bringing back the Adelaide 500 supercar race could be a winner in some seats and a loser in others.
Marshall’s signature announcement was a $662 million city entertainment arena, Malinauskas pledged a $593 million hydrogen power plant.
Manning says there are different concerns at a state level, but that it is clear any kudos leaders won from keeping Australia relatively safe in the pandemic has dissipated.
That applies at both state and federal levels, he says.
He quotes Labor veteran Geoff Anderson, who said “voters tend to say thank you for what you’ve done … but ask what are you going to do now?”.
He believes Malinauskas’s success in the polls comes from the opposition leader’s focus on what he is going to do, as opposed to Marshall relying on what he has already done.
Meanwhile, any predictions for the May election are made more complicated by a broader acceptance of debt and deficit in the wake of government pandemic spending. It’s also not clear how global insecurity will affect incumbency.
However the votes fall, there is unlikely to be a result by Saturday night. More than 172,000 South Australians have cast an early vote, and more than 162,000 have cast a postal vote.
With a voting population of about 1,267,000, that means about a quarter of the votes won’t be counted until the counting of Saturday’s votes are done.
And if it’s a hung parliament and either side has to woo those independents, it might take even longer.
