Australia has already passed the halfway point to its 2030 renewable energy goal and could reach it if momentum is sustained, research has found.
But the federal opposition's nuclear policy could undermine investor confidence in renewable energy projects and "derail" progress made in 2024, warns the study released on Tuesday by independent think tank Climate Energy Finance.
The warning comes amid heated debate over Australia's energy future after the coalition pledged to establish seven nuclear power plants if elected in 2025, and released costings from Frontier Economics last week.
The figures put the price of establishing nuclear reactors at $331 billion and claim it would cost significantly less than a move to renewable energy only, but the forecasts have been contested by environment and energy groups.
The Climate Energy Finance analysis found Australia was on track to reach its target of 82 per cent renewable energy by 2030 after progress made in the last six months of the year.
A rise in project proposals and planning approvals for variable renewable energy and battery storage systems had boosted the nation's energy outlook, the report found, in addition to continued growth in rooftop solar installations.
The Clean Energy Regulator estimated a record amount of renewable energy, up to 7.5 gigawatts, would enter the system to put Australia on track to average 45 per cent renewable energy in 2025.
But that figure could reach as high as 48 per cent, Climate Energy Finance director and report author Tim Buckley said.
"November 2024 saw a renewable energy share over the month of 44.6 per cent, up from 40.2 per cent a year ago and only marginally below the 2024 monthly record high of 47.4 per cent delivered in October," he said.
"These trends are highly promising, putting 82 per cent renewables by 2030 within reach."
But electricity demand had also grown by 1.6 per cent during the year, the report found, fuelled by data centres, artificial intelligence programs and more electrical appliances and vehicles.
The national debate over a switch to nuclear energy could also impact progress towards renewable energy targets and carbon emission cuts, Mr Buckley said, as it could slow investments in the technology.
"There remains a clear and present threat that Australia loses momentum or acts too slowly, or is divided by the climate and energy wars," he said.
"It is critical that the nuclear furphy of the federal LNP not be allowed to derail the significant progress we are now making on accelerating Australia's transition to renewables."
The report issued a series of recommendations, including expediting findings from the national nuclear energy inquiry, and reaffirming state bans on nuclear power and commitments to close coal-fired power stations.
Federal and state governments should also mandate "overriding public interest" as a consideration for approving large-scale energy projects, the report said, introduce interest-free loans for rooftop solar and household batteries, and launch a four-hour window giving some households access to free energy during peak solar generation.
The government has committed to achieving 82 per cent renewable energy in the National Electricity Market by 2030 as part of its plan to cut emissions by 43 per cent.
But the coalition says its plan to introduce nuclear power would achieve net zero by 2050.
Under its plan, renewable energy would make up 54 per cent of Australia's energy mix in 2050, while nuclear reactors would generate 38 per cent.
