Sir Alex Ferguson once said: “Attack wins you games, defence wins you championships.” The meeting of Manchester City and Arsenal on Sunday could well prove the former Manchester United manager right.
The teams are very different in style when it comes to their centre-forwards. Manchester City have arguably the world’s best No 9 in Erling Haaland, whereas Kai Havertz assumes the role of a false 9 for Arsenal. The contrasts will make for an intriguing match at the Etihad, with both teams knowing the importance of the result.
Haaland has been sensational since arriving in the Premier League from Borussia Dortmund in the summer of 2022. Pep Guardiola identified what City needed to do to go from Champions League challengers to winners, effectively selecting four centre-backs and buying a striker who could make the difference. The plan was to have Haaland as the focal point and work around the centre-forward, ensuring he stayed central, within the width of the box. If it came to feet he set it back to teammates but Guardiola did not want him running channels because it blocks other people’s passing lanes. He was awesome last season and it is no coincidence that City won the treble.
City kept Haaland fit in his first year and he repaid them with an incredible 36 goals in 35 Premier League appearances. It is an impressive statistic by anyone’s standard, setting a very high bar, but it is unrealistic to reach that level each season. This time he has 18 goals in 23 appearances and is the league’s top scorer but still receives criticism. Admittedly, his xG has dropped but he is still showing himself to be the best in the land.
There are reasons why things have changed slightly at City. Haaland came into a squad where the midfielders and wingers were settled but there was a bit of turnover this summer. Riyad Mahrez and Ilkay Gündogan departed, which necessitated some reconfiguration. However good Haaland might be, it does take time for him to adapt to the new people around him and vice versa.
It is Haaland’s movement that makes the difference. There is a similarity to Lionel Messi in that the best players can look as if they are out of the game, opponents drop their guard and then all of a sudden the player scores a goal. Arsenal’s centre-backs will be acutely aware of that.
Mikel Arteta, like his former mentor Guardiola, decided he needed to effect a change if he wanted to improve Arsenal’s forward line. Eyebrows were raised when £65m was spent on Havertz, a player who struggled for consistency in three seasons at Chelsea, but, like Haaland, he has plenty of years in front of him. At 24, Havertz is already a Champions League winner, scoring the decisive goal against City in the 2021 final, and that experience is vital to a team chasing silverware.
Havertz is technically good but I thought he was signed more because of his stature. Last summer Arsenal recruited Declan Rice and Havertz, who are both more than 6ft. The German is not exactly a bully of a centre-forward but he has a physical presence.
Arteta also brought in goalkeeper David Raya whose distribution, especially when going long, is some of the best in the business. If a team are more direct at times, they require someone who can hold the ball up, flick it on and bring a little physicality up the pitch, which Havertz offers. I think false 9 is his best position, even though he is versatile. When he was at Bayer Leverkusen he looked at ease in the role. He is best when coming into pockets of space with his back to goal, allowing others to work off him. He brings a dimension to Arsenal that was not there last season.
The narrative has changed for Arsenal since Christmas. Before that point it looked as if they weren’t going to score enough but since then they have gone on an incredible run, looking more free in how they attack and regularly scoring from set pieces. Arsenal have scored seven more league goals than City this season, helping them to top spot going into the weekend, while City sit third, one point behind.
In this fixture almost a year ago, City were utterly dominant, winning 4-1. Arsenal have become more solid thanks to Raya, William Saliba’s return to fitness and the arrival of Rice in midfield. Havertz has made a difference too. His late winners home and away against Brentford have earned Arsenal an extra four points and he provided the assist for Gabriel Martinelli in October’s reverse fixture against City, which Arsenal won 1-0. These are the fine margins that can decide a title race.
City’s home advantage could be important but they have concerns with Kyle Walker, John Stones and Manuel Akanji sustaining injuries on international duty, and it is unclear whether Ederson is fit to return. It could result in a much changed City back five, which is less than ideal for Guardiola against the best attack (and defence) in the league.
Haaland and Havertz have changed their sides for the better. Which No 9 – traditional or false – has the greater effect at the Etihad could help decide if City or Arsenal end the season as the undisputed No 1.
