The All Blacks are not the force they were. But are Wales good enough to beat them?
It feels like every year we go through the masochistic ritual of believing that this could be the year that Wales finally overcome New Zealand. Yet every year we are firmly put back in our box after a harsh dose of reality is delivered with callous efficiency.
But this New Zealand side is not the same one that I have come to know. The aura has gone, they are human after all.
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I still believe they are the most talented squad of players in the world, capable of magical moments that beggar belief. Their collective skill levels remain streets ahead of anyone else and their intent to score tries is undiminished. So, what’s gone wrong?
The main difference is that under sustained pressure the All Blacks make mistakes that they never used to make. They make bad decisions, lose their discipline, force the pass, drop the ball, miss the tackle. Things that lesser teams frequently do, but not the All Blacks.
How many times have New Zealand stolen an underserved victory in the final play of the game? Even when they were far from their best, they had an inner belief that they would find a way to win, they knew it and the opposition feared it. That was their aura. It was like Manchester United under Ferguson.
To beat New Zealand in the past it wasn’t enough to play just a little bit better than them, you had to dominate them for 80 minutes. Take the Ireland v New Zealand game in the Autumn Nations Series last year. In the first half, Ireland outplayed New Zealand completely. They had 71 per cent possession, 73 per cent territory and the tackle count was 37 to 158. New Zealand had a man in the bin but when they went in at half-time it was one try apiece and the only difference was a missed conversion and a Johnny Sexton penalty.
But this is where they are different, nine times out of ten, the All Blacks would have re-grouped, changed their tactics and through a combination of cynical exploitation of the laws and their own brilliance they would have scraped through in the end.
Not this vintage. They couldn’t find the answers. They didn’t have the leadership, composure or belief that they could get back in a state of some concern.
That concern turned to anxiety throughout 2022. The self-confidence had gone and you only had to apply a whiff of pressure before the errors began to emerge. Against Argentina, they dominated possession and territory yet looked increasing devoid of ideas and eventually lost at home to the Pumas for the first time.
That was their nadir, they have bounced back, but not with anything like the same authority that they used to have as proven by their less than impressive win in Japan last weekend. Again, the problem was that they dominated possession but could not break down a stubborn and organised defence.
This New Zealand side is more vulnerable than any I can remember. Despite having powerful individuals, they have been unable to harness that power as a collective through good decisions and sound leadership when they need to change the direction of the game. It has made them one dimensional, which is why they struggle to break down defences.
This big question remains however, are Wales capable of dealing with the multiphase game that the All Blacks will bring? It requires the defence to gain parity in the collisions on the gain line, slow down the All Blacks’ speed of ball and have enough defenders in the defensive line so that they can stay aggressive.
Make no mistake, if New Zealand get quick ball, they will tear Wales apart. But if you slow them down, they can look ordinary.
However the task facing Wayne Pivac is considerable. The majority of his squad have been getting thoroughly beaten in the URC for the last two months, while many others have barely played due to long term or short term injuries.
How does he get that group of players up to the intensity needed to have a shot at the All Blacks? I think it’s almost impossible.
Pivac has stated that 90 per cent of the World Cup squad are selected, which on the face of it sounds surprising but if we each picked the best 35 players in Wales, we would each agree on 90% of them.
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Rather than the squad, does Pivac know what his best team is? Who his best hooker, scrum-half, back-row, midfield is? These have been constantly changing selections and I don’t think he knows who his best players are, and that is a concern. He has some very old heads in his squad but surely he can’t play all of them together in a World Cup when the games come thick and fast?
And if you don’t know your best team, it’s hard to know how you intend to break teams down. Scoring tries is major issue for the coach who came into the job on a promise to make Wales more attacking.
The Autumn games provide Pivac with a World Cup-like scenario, varying challenges in rapid succession. I would like to see a clear indication that he knows what his best team is by the end.
And if we could beat New Zealand in the process that would be wonderful, I just wish the squad was in better shape for this opportunity.
Gwyn Jones is a part of S4C’s team for highlights of Wales v New Zealand, which will be shown at 8.30pm on Saturday night. Highlights of Wales' matches in the Autumn Nations Series will be shown on S4C.
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