This weekend is the final one in what has been a dismal season in almost every respect for Wales.
Wayne Pivac's national side were embarrassed in the Six Nations, not one of the regions managed to get into the top half of the United Rugby Championship and the future of the professional game descends into further chaos, as the in-fighting between all the stakeholders intensifies.
The only glimmer of optimism came from the womens’ relative success in the Six Nations and a more stable footing for their future.
READ MORE: The likely Wales XV to face South Africa
With that as a backdrop, Pivac has announced his squad for the daunting tour to South Africa. The abject failure of the regions to be competitive on their recent visits to the southern hemisphere is still fresh in our minds.
Most of the squad picks itself, so it is in those choices that are more finely balanced that we can begin to read the coaching team's thoughts. Wales have a plethora of flankers and you can make a strong argument to include any of the leading contenders to go on the tour.
However, the rationale behind the omission of Jac Morgan worries me greatly. Saying that you’re not including him because he isn’t good enough over the ball at the tackle makes you wonder if you’re talking about the same person.
It’s an explanation that jars with me because he’s pretty good at exactly that. The stats show it, and anyone who's watched him play this year can see it. So it seems an odd reason to give to the public.
Could Morgan be better at it? Sure, everyone can improve their game. Is Tommy Reffell better over the ball than him? Probably, but Morgan has a far more rounded game than the destructive Reffell.
So that’s confusing enough, but what concerned me more is that I feel this is the exact opposite of why Pivac chose not to include Morgan in his squad last season. He said that the role of openside flankers has changed, the number of jackals were falling and that he needed backrowers who were better at ball carrying and this is what Morgan had to improve.
Furthermore, Morgan and Reffell didn’t make the Autumn series squad because neither of them played in teams that fitted with the way Wales played and they could not demonstrate they had the skills Pivac was looking for.
I am sure Morgan will have listened carefully to his coach's advice and will go away and do what he has been told. But if I was him, I’d be pretty confused and cheesed off in equal measure.
The way I interpret this is that either Pivac doesn’t rate Morgan, and instead of admitting that, he has constructed two straw men arguments that directly contradict each other to explain why he has not picked him. Or, secondly, Pivac has changed his fundamental philosophy of how he wants the game to be played over the course of the last few months, as he scrabbles around for answers to his current predicament.
Wales managed one win in the Six Nations, a turgid and low quality victory against Scotland. As the leading countries in the world such as France, Ireland and New Zealand develop the up-tempo attacking style, Wales look rudderless.
I suspect Pivac has been spooked by the systematic demolition of the Welsh regions in South Africa over recent weeks. The gulf in power was striking and a three Test series could end in humiliation.
I accept the need for Wales to be able to cope with the physicality of the Springboks, but they are not going to outmuscle them in their own backyard.
Pivac could go into a Test match with Dan Biggar an 10, Tommy Reffell at 7 and Dan Lydiate at 6. That is not a side that is going to be able open up the game in the way Pivac has always talked about. That is not a side moving to a high skill high tempo game. That is a side that wants to go toe-to-toe with the Boks, and there will only be one winner in that contest.
I championed Pivac’s case to be the Welsh coach. I have supported his attempts to evolve the style of play. I have accepted the failures as the inevitable part of a process of change, one where the goal is for Wales to become a team that embraces an attacking and positive style of play we've seen mastered by Ireland over the last few years.
I am disappointed that we have made such little progress in that regard - and I am dismayed that we are now moving away from that goal.
I know full well from my own time involved with coaches under pressure that when they start saying things that don’t ring true with your own experience (as in Jac Morgan’s case), or when you suddenly change the fundamental way you want to play the game, you are in very real danger of losing the dressing room.
Wales have a history of ditching coaches pre-World Cup. Pivac is not in imminent danger, but as someone who has supported him and wanted him to succeed all along, my confidence in him has run out.
Gwyn Jones is a part of S4C’s Clwb Rygbi Rhyngwladol team. S4C will show coverage of three URC matches this weekend: Benetton v Cardiff (Friday, 5.45pm), Dragons v Lions (Saturday, 2.45pm) and Scarlets v Stormers (Saturday, 5 pm). English commentary available on the matches
