The best way to describe the upcoming competition in the AFC East? That’s pretty easy.
It’s Buffalo.
Then everyone else.
The Bills have been, and still are, the best team in the division heading into the 2022 season. They’re a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
The questions largely revolve around everyone else – with the Patriots topping the list.
Specifically, can Bill Belichick’s team hold serve and stay above the fray, once again earning a ticket to the playoffs?
Or will either the Dolphins, Jets – or both – leapfrog over them in the division?
That’s where the real intrigue lies. The battle between the rest.
So while the AFC East doesn’t quite hold a candle to the AFC West, with four heavyweight contenders primed to duke it out, there are still plenty of compelling storylines to keep things interesting.
At the top, the Bills, behind MVP candidate Josh Allen, are trying to break through and finally get to the Super Bowl against an even more stacked AFC. Will this be the year?
As for the Patriots, the biggest question is whether or not Mac Jones can excel in Year 2 without Josh McDaniels, or anyone remotely resembling an offensive mastermind calling the plays. Moreover, can Jones and the offense make up for a defense that last year couldn’t force the Bills to punt the last two times the teams met.
The Dolphins? They assembled an offensive juggernaut under first-year head coach Mike McDaniel, adding wideouts Tyreek Hill, Cedrick Wilson Jr., and others, but do they have the right quarterback to take advantage of all the talent around him? Is Tua Tagovailoa really the answer?
And finally, there’s the Jets, who are looking to make a significant move and rise out of the AFC East basement.
Quarterback Zach Wilson, who struggled for much of last season, is on a mission to justify being taken second overall last year.
Whatever the storyline, the division could produce two, possibly three playoff teams.
As ESPN analyst Damien Woody remarked, “there’s no longer any chumps in the division.”
Here’s a closer look at how the AFC East shapes up.
Buffalo Bills (11-6; lost to Kansas City in division round)
Impact additions: LB Von Miller, WR Jamison Crowder, plus top draft pick CB Kairr Elam.
Significant losses: G Jon Feliciano, WR Cole Beasley, WR Emmanuel Sanders, DB Levi Wallace.
Outlook: Basically, for the Bills, it’s gotten to the point where it’s Super Bowl or bust.
They’ve been beaten the last few years by the Chiefs in the postseason, but based on last year’s overtime thriller, can hang with anyone thanks to quarterback Josh Allen.
In terms of 2022, it’s basically the same team with Von Miller added to the mix on defense. Given the Bills’ less-than-lethal pass rush, Miller’s presence should help get them over the hurdle.
Offensively, the addition of Jamison Crowder should make up for the loss of Cole Beasley. Gabriel Davis really emerged as a threat last season, so between Davis, Stefon Diggs, Crowder, and tight end Dawson Knox, Allen has plenty of weapons to expose defenses every week.
Last season, Allen threw for 4,407 yards, 36 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. In that divisional 42-36 overtime loss to the Chiefs, he went toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes, going 27-for-37 for 329 yards and four touchdowns, all to Davis.
So it just seems like a matter of time before the Bills finally get to play for the championship.
Defensively, with Miller providing the missing pass rush component, the only issue is how soon top corner Tre’Davious White, who had knee surgery to repair a torn anterior cruciate ligament, will be ready.
Kaiir Elam, the team’s first-round draft pick, could very well be the opening day starter.
The AFC East crown is theirs to lose. And right now, it’s hard to see the Bills losing their grip.
New England Patriots (10-8; lost to Buffalo in wild-card round)
Impact additions: WR DeVante Parker, LB Mack Wilson, along with top draft picks OL Cole Strange, DB Marcus Jones, DB Jack Jones.
Significant losses: DB JC Jackson, G Shaq Mason, C/G Ted Karras, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.
Outlook: Any notion that the Patriots will improve on their 10-7 season from last year basically boils down to two largely held beliefs and intangibles.
The first is a blind faith and trust in Bill Belichick, who – while making some questionable moves in recent years – has earned the benefit of doubt thanks to winning six Super Bowls.
The second revolves around second-year quarterback Mac Jones, who showed a ton of promise last year, and the belief he’s destined for stardom.
That’s largely what the Patriots have going for them, because there are serious question marks on both sides of the ball.
Where to start?
The Patriots didn’t exactly replace play-caller and offensive guru McDaniels. At least, they didn’t give anyone the title of offensive coordinator.
Joe Judge and Matt Patricia, both failed head coaches who have never run an offense, are now the quarterbacks coach and offensive line coach, respectively. The way it looks, they’re basically going to run the offense with Belichick, although an actual play-caller is likely to emerge during the pre-season.
All eyes will be on how well they work with Jones, and maneuver what Belichick termed a “streamlined” offense. Kendrick Bourne said it was a “new” offense, with “new” terminology. It would seem the Patriots hope to simplify what was a difficult offense to learn, and put a different spin on it.
The addition of Parker should help while the Pats are counting on both Nelson Agholor and Jonnu Smith to be much better in Year 2. Their running game remains sound.
The defense?
Against the league’s better offenses, most notably Buffalo, the unit didn’t put up much of a fight. While they had a top 10 defense, it’s hard to ignore the fact they couldn’t force the Bills to punt in two crucial games.
Moreover, the Patriots didn’t re-sign top corner J.C. Jackson, and basically changed the face of the defense by not re-signing longtime mainstays Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins while also shipping out Kyle Van Noy. It appears the Patriots are moving toward a faster, younger linebacking corps.
While the Patriots are strong at the safety position, it remains to be seen if they can field at least two solid corners.
Any way you slice it, the Patriots aren’t exactly loaded with top-end talent on either side of the ball. That didn’t prove to be a problem when Tom Brady was under center.
It remains to be seen if Jones can lift a team to greater heights, and if a 70-year-old Belichick still has his fastball. Holding their spot in the playoffs largely depends on it.
Miami Dolphins (9-8, third in division)
Impact additions: WR Tyreek Hill, WR Cedrick Wilson, T Terron Armstead, RB Chase Edmonds, RB Raheem Mostert, head coach Mike McDaniel.
Significant losses: G Jesse Davis, head coach Brian Flores.
Outlook: The Fins have come up one win short of making the playoffs the last two seasons.
Enter new head coach Mike McDaniel. Enter superstar receiver Tyreek Hill.
The Fins’ braintrust is banking on McDaniel, and an enhanced offensive cast to take them to the promised land.
McDaniel is a Kyle Shanahan disciple who should inject some life into Tua Tagovailoa and an offense that now features a sizzling receiver trio with Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Cedrick Wilson along with tight end Mike Gesicki.
As for the defense, it remains to be seen how good that unit will be without Flores running the show. Defensive coordinator Josh Boyer was kept, so that helps in terms of continuity.
Mostly, this comes down to how good Tagovailoa can be with a loaded cast that also improved its running game with Edmonds and Mostert, and protection up front bringing All-Pro left tackle Terron Armstead aboard.
Given all that, it’s easy to see improvement, and perhaps, finally getting the playoff monkey off their back.
But then again, in the closing stretch of their schedule, they have to play the 49ers and Chargers back-to-back out on the West Coast, follow with the Bills on the road, the Packers at home and Patriots on the road, before closing out against the Jets at Hard Rock Stadium.
If the Fins are legitimate, they’ll have to break better than even over those final games.
New York Jets (4-13, last in division)
Impact additions: TE CJ Uzomah, G Laken Tomlinson, DB DJ Reed, along with top draft picks DB Sauce Gardner, WR Garrett Wilson, DE Jermaine Johnson, RB Breece Hall.
Significant losses: WR Jamison Crowder, DE Shaw Lawson, S Marcus Maye.
Outlook: Gang Green certainly added a lot of pieces. With a ton of draft capital, along with cash, they were able to fill plenty of areas of need.
So will they get up off the mat with an enhanced cast, or be the same old Jets?
Much of that depends on Zach Wilson, who was erratic, at best, during his rookie season.
He completed 213 of 383 passes (55.6%) for 2,334 yards, with nine touchdowns and 11 interceptions. His 69.7 passer rating ranked last among qualifiers.
He has a pretty good cast of receivers, with Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, Braxton Berrios and rookie Garrett Wilson, but it won’t do much good if he can’t hit them with more regularity. Zach Wilson has great arm talent, but it’s wasted if his wildness continues.
Of course, Buffalo’s Allen was the same way early on, and he’s now one of the best in the league. It remains to be seen how Wilson turns out.
Second-year head coach Robert Saleh installed a new defense last season, so with another year, it should run a little smoother.
It should be noted the Jets have to face the Ravens, Browns, Bengals, Steelers, Dolphins, Packers, Broncos, Patriots, and Bills, in that order, to start the year. Hard to see one win – if that – in the mix during the first half of their year.
Bottom line, the Jets will be better. But we’re not ready to pull them out of the AFC East basement just yet.
