The Albanese government’s plan to reduce the generosity of tax concessions for people with superannuation balances over $3m is supported by 50% of Guardian Essential poll respondents – and the move is more popular among those with higher balances.
The latest survey of 1,141 voters finds 50% endorse Labor’s recent super tax shift, while 31% are on the fence and 19% oppose the change. It also finds 55% would support a further crackdown on family trusts.
Most respondents (70%) who are aged under 55 and have less than $3m in their super account believe they will never accumulate that much. Only 23% of this cohort believe it is likely they will hit $3m.
Perhaps counterintuitively, the new poll indicates Labor’s decision to limit tax concessions for wealthy retirees is more popular among voters with higher accumulated superannuation balances.
Last week’s policy shift is supported by 55% of respondents with balances between $100,000 and $199,000, 58% of respondents with balances between $200,000 and $499,000, and 53% of people with balances of half a million dollars or more.
The survey also suggests voters have a clear understanding about the policy rationale for capping concessions.
More than half (59%) of respondents think the government wants to ensure super is used as retirement income and not as a tax shelter for the rich, 58% believe the change is about paying down debt and freeing up funds for services, while 52% say the policy is about making the system fairer and more sustainable.
Only 38% of respondents see the change as a strike against aspiration, or a broken election promise. The latest Guardian Essential data also indicates there is some community appetite to tighten up the rules governing family trusts to stop wealthy people engaging in tax minimisation (55% of respondents support that idea, 31% are on the fence and 15% oppose it).
Similarly, 43% of respondents favour the cancellation of the stage-three tax cuts that predominantly benefit higher earners, while 36% are on the fence and 22% would oppose that idea.
The fresh voter snapshot follows the Albanese government’s decision last week to cut tax concessions on super accounts with more than $3m, a change that will take effect in 2025. According to a separate Newspoll published this week, 64% of voters approved of the super changes, while 29% of respondents disapproved and 7% were unsure.
With parliament resuming for the week on Monday, Labor revealed the planned overhaul would affect only 0.5% of super account holders in 2025, but that would increase to 10% in 30 years’ time.
The Coalition has vowed to oppose the change, prompting the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, to declare on Monday the Coalition had become “a government of one half of one percent”.
The government will need the support of the Greens and crossbenchers in the Senate to legislate the measure. The Greens are pushing in negotiations to eliminate all tax concessions for accounts with more than $1.9m in part to fund a doubling of commonwealth rent assistance, and Senate kingmakers Jacqui Lambie and David Pocock are pushing the government to go further in reducing concessions and tax cuts for the wealthy.
Albanese’s approval drops
While the latest opinion survey indicates voters are reasonably sanguine about the super tax change, Albanese continues to lose some of his shine with voters. The data shows 40% of respondents say they are positive about the prime minister – down six points in a month – while 27% say they feel negatively about his performance, which is a five point increase.
There has also been a rise in the number of respondents who say they believe Australia is heading in the wrong direction (42%, a four point increase from last month) while 38% believe things are heading in the right direction (a four point decrease).
All these negative movements are outside the Guardian Essential poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus three points.
With the Reserve Bank of Australia likely to increase the official cash rate again on Tuesday, the latest poll shows voters are struggling with sustained cost-of-living pressure.
For a second consecutive month, more Australians (51%) say they are struggling to pay their bills or are in serious financial difficulty (49% report being financially comfortable). In February, 53% of respondents said they were in financial strife and 47% said they were comfortable. Last November that ratio was reversed – 54% of respondents said they were comfortable and 46% reported being in difficulty.
While Australians are clearly feeling the squeeze, the Liberal leader Peter Dutton’s strategy of serial trenchant opposition to government policies has not boosted his standing with voters. Only 26% of poll respondents say they feel positive about Dutton (down from a high of 29% last November) and 33% say they feel negatively about the opposition leader.
With prime ministers dominating the national conversation, often opposition leaders are not particularly well-known among disengaged voters. But the Guardian Essential poll data indicates only 2% of respondents say they have never heard of the Liberal leader.
