More voters are blaming the Albanese government for interest rate rises but Labor appears to have hit the electoral sweet spot with its proposed cap on international student enrolments.
Those are the conclusions of the latest Guardian Essential poll of 1,132 voters conducted after a week of debate about whether the Reserve Bank should begin cutting interest rates due to extremely soft growth.
After 13 interest rate rises since May 2022, the poll found that most voters (58%) blamed this round of contractionary monetary policy on “prices going up”, about the same percentage as when the question was asked in February 2023.
The federal government was the second-most popular source of blame for rate rises, with 44% blaming it, up from 31% in February 2023 and 38% in June 2023.
The result underscores the political difficulty for Labor, as the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, warns that interest rates are “smashing the economy” in an attempt to encourage the RBA to cut rates or distance the government from decisions to keep them on hold.
The other factors presented were: the RBA “overreacting” (blamed by 37% of respondents); “disruptions in supply chains triggered by the pandemic” (32%); the war in Ukraine (22%); and wages rising too quickly (21%).
Respondents were also asked about proposed new questions for the 2026 census, after the government had backed down to include sexuality but before the further backdown to also include gender identity.
Forty-two per cent of voters said the census should ask about both gender and sexuality; while one-quarter (25%) said it should ask about neither topic; 23% favoured a question about gender but not sexual orientation; and 10% wanted one on sexual orientation but not gender.
A majority of respondents (53%) said the Albanese government’s plan to cap international student enrolments in tertiary education at 270,000 in 2025 had got the number “about right”. A bit over a third (37%) said this was still “too high” and just 10% said it was “too low”.
In a forced-choice question, most voters (69%) agreed with the government’s rationale for the policy “to reduce the number of international students using courses as a backdoor to live and work in Australia” rather than universities’ views that “capping the number of international students will make study for local students more expensive and undermine our international reputation” (31%).
In a separate question, more than half of respondents agreed with propositions that “universities should be responsible for the impact of overseas students such as providing accommodation” (59%) and that “international students are good for the Australian economy by providing income and workers” (52%).
About half of respondents agreed that “income from international students is important because it helps to fund degrees for local students” (50%) and that “international students build stronger ties between Australia and other nations” (49%).
Respondents were asked about how important various industries are in driving Australia’s wealth. Education topped the list, with 78% of respondents describing it as either “absolutely essential” or “very important”.
Majorities also backed “health and care sectors” (75%), manufacturing (75%), science and technology (72%), and mining and resources (69%), results which could help Labor make the argument for its Future Made in Australia package including critical minerals production tax credits.
“Arts and culture” was bottom of the list, rated as “absolutely essential” or “very important” by just 34% of voters.
Tertiary education in Australia was highly rated by respondents, with a majority describing Tafe as good or very good (62%), while 60% said the same of universities. Results were slightly lower for childcare and early learning (51%), infants and primary school (50%) and high school (49%).
Respondents were asked to rank four objectives of the education system. Ensuring “students have basic literacy and numeracy” was the top priority for 38% of respondents, followed by “the health and wellbeing of young Australians” (29%), “that students leave with the ability to think critically” (18%) and “that students have the skills to get a good job” (15%).
