Support for both the major parties has dropped since the start of the federal election campaign, but Labor is emerging as the party most trusted to manage the cost of living pressures facing Australians.
At the mid-point of the six-week election campaign, the Guardian Essential poll of 1,500 respondents finds the primary vote for both Labor and the Coalition largely unmoved, despite billions of dollars in election promises being made as voters tune into the contest.
But while primary support is flatlining, Labor retains a lead over the Coalition of 49% to 45% on a two-party preferred “plus” measure.
The challenge to connect with disengaged voters is also highlighted by the fact that 17% of people say they have not been paying any attention to the news, advertising or updates from the federal election campaign, and 33% saying they have only been paying little attention.
The latest survey shows the Coalition’s primary vote is at 36% – down from 37% a fortnight ago and back to where it was at the beginning of April, while Labor’s primary support is unchanged at 35%. At the beginning of April, Labor’s primary support was 36%.
The Greens are polling 10%, the United Australia Party 4%, One Nation 3%, and independents and other parties 5%.
Six per cent of people are still undecided.
On the 2PP+ metric, Labor’s increase to 49% is up two points in the past fortnight, with the Coalition dropping to 45% and the undecided vote down to just 6%. Essential’s voting intention figures express the head-to-head metric of the major party contest as two-party preferred “plus”, rather than the standard two-party preferred measure. It has a 3% margin of error.
This change in methodology, adopted after the 2019 election, highlights the proportion of undecided voters in any survey, providing accuracy on the limits of any prediction.
The Coalition’s support is higher among older voters, men, and people in New South Wales and Queensland. For the first time, the Coalition has also won over more female voters than Labor, 34% to 32%, but this remains within the poll’s margin of error.
Labor’s support is stronger in Victoria and among 18- to 34-year-olds and 35- to 54-year-olds.
But while the major parties are struggling to win the support of voters, the poll has also found a large drop in the number of people who feel that “Australia is heading in the right direction” compared to a fortnight ago.
Just under half of respondents (41%) say Australia is heading in the right direction, while 43% of people say the country is on the “wrong track”.
When this question was asked a fortnight ago, 46% of respondents said they believed Australia was going in the right direction, with 37% saying we are on the wrong track.
As cost of living pressures take centre stage in the election campaign, with inflation at 20-year highs and expectations that interest rates will begin rising as soon as Tuesday, voters say hip pocket concerns have become the most important to them.
Four out of five (79%) of voters listed cost of living as important, with 47% ranking it very important. It is the most important issue, ahead of improving public services (69%), job security (60%) and climate change (54%).
Almost half of all voters rank paying down government debt and the relationship between China and Solomon Islands as important (47%), while the issue of boat turnbacks is seen as a priority by 41% of people.
The poll also found that 27% of people believe the debate over the participation of transgender people in sport is important, with 11% rating the issue – thrust into the spotlight by Warringah Liberal candidate, Katherine Deves – as “very important”.
On the cost of living, 40% of voters judged that Labor was best placed to manage the issue, compared to 30% who trust the Coalition on the issue, and 30% who deemed both parties to be no different.
Labor also outranked the Coalition on voter trust for improving public services such as health and welfare (44% to 26%), job security (38% to 29%) and the climate crisis (40% to 21%.)
About 10% of people report difficulty being able to pay bills, while about a third of all voters (34%) say they are “struggling a bit”, and have to watch the budget.
Most people (39%) say they are “secure”, and are able to pay bills and “usually have money spare for savings or buying luxuries.” Just 18% of people describe themselves as comfortable.
The prime minister, Scott Morrison, has been campaigning on the risk of a change of government to Labor, seizing on the economic uncertainty to tell voters to stick with what they know rather than chance opposition leader Anthony Albanese.
Labor has been running a small-target campaign offering safe change, while also focused on promising voters cost of living relief through its childcare, housing, Medicare and energy policies.
Just 33% of people believe the government deserves to be re-elected, while 46% agree with the statement that it “is time to give someone else a go”.
In response to questions about the likely fate of the government, 56% believe that Labor will win the coming contest, compared to 44% who believe the Coalition will be re-elected.
