Scott Morrison enters a federal election year with his approval languishing at levels not seen since March 2020, and the Coalition’s handling of the Omicron wave has prompted some voters to signal they are now less likely to back the government on polling day.
The first Guardian Essential poll of 2022 confirms the prime minister’s approval rating (46%) hasn’t budged since last December, and disapproval of Morrison is up two points to 46%.
The Morrison government had hoped to recover standing with voters over the summer break, but the desired political fillip hasn’t eventuated. The prime minister needs to recover lost ground – voter approval of Morrison dived 19 points during the controversies and missteps of 2020.
While the uptick in voter disapproval of the prime minister during January falls inside the survey’s margin of error, more emphatic is voter disillusionment over the government’s handling of the pandemic.
Last December, 41% of respondents rated the federal response to Covid as good. After the challenging summer of Omicron – with surging case numbers, increased numbers of deaths, and rolling controversy over shortages of rapid antigen tests – only 35% of respondents think the Morrison government is doing a good job, while 38% (up from 32%) of the sample describes the response as poor.
Ominously for the government, Morrison’s performance over the summer has also prompted 37% of respondents to say they are now less likely to vote for the Coalition at the federal election expected in May – although 19% say events have made it more likely they will stick with the incumbents.
The latest data suggests voters are concerned about the surge in cases, and a shortage of rapid antigen tests remains a hot button issue – 38% of respondents say they are less likely to vote for the government based on their handling of that issue. There is significant lived experience in the community – 26% of respondents say they have have tried but have been unable to procure a RAT test in the last month.
If the current negative sentiment holds or accelerates, the latest Guardian Essential data suggests the Coalition would go backwards on polling day.
Also challenging electorally for Morrison is a plunge in voter approval of the New South Wales government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Only 37% of respondents now rate the Perrottet government’s management of the pandemic as good – down from 54% in December.
Morrison needs the Coalition to poll strongly in New South Wales to secure a fourth term. While the mood has soured in New South Wales, public sentiment appears to have rebounded marginally in Victoria, with 47% saying the Andrews government is doing a good job (up from 43% in December).
Voter support for the state responses to the pandemic in Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia also went backwards in January as case numbers surged after restrictions lifted.
While the new poll shows Morrison and some of his state counterparts have endured a difficult summer, the deportation of tennis star Novak Djokovic was a winner with the Coalition’s base, with 43% of self-identified Liberal and National supporters nominating that controversy as a reason to vote for the Coalition at the looming election.
Looking at Labor, Anthony Albanese’s approval and disapproval metrics have not shifted decisively over the summer break. On the latest numbers, 39% of respondents approve of the opposition leader’s performance and 39% disapprove (23% of the sample say they don’t have a view).
But Albanese has closed the gap between himself and Morrison in the poll’s better prime minister measure (42% say Morrison is the better prime minister, while 34% say Albanese, which is up three points since December).
Voters were also asked about their priorities for government in 2022. Additional health investments topped the list, with 54% of respondents putting that issue in their top three. Nearly half the sample want more investments in systems like aged care and childcare. Next on the list is action to combat global heating, and reducing cost of living pressures.
