Anthony Albanese is experiencing a post-election boost not seen since Kevin Rudd was elected in 2007, with the prime minister’s net approval rating up 40 points since Labor’s victory last month.
The first Guardian Essential poll since the 21 May election shows 59% of voters approve of the job Albanese is doing as prime minister, including 19% who “strongly approve”, compared with just 18% who do not. About one in four (23%) say they don’t know.
In the final poll before the election, just 42% of voters approved of Albanese’s performance, similar to the proportion who disapproved (41%). The post-election bounce represents a 40-point turnaround over the past four weeks in his net approval figure, which is the difference between those who approve and those who disapprove.
Albanese’s honeymoon with voters comes after a frenetic start to his prime ministership. He has had overseas visits to Tokyo and Jakarta – where he met with the leaders of the US, India, Japan and Indonesia – while he faces growing cost of living pressures on the domestic front.
In his first three weeks as PM, Albanese has overseen the return of the Nadesalingam family to Biloela, signed off on the government’s minimum wage submission, met with the New Zealand prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, finalised the settlement of compensation for the cancelled Naval Group submarine contract, visited Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory, and attended two swearing-in ceremonies at Government House in Canberra.
The prime minister will hold a cabinet meeting in the regional Queensland city of Gladstone on Wednesday as the government prepares to bed down its response to the energy crisis, with Albanese saying the government was trying to address a “decade of neglect”.
Such a large post-election bounce in net approval was not achieved by the past four prime ministers. Scott Morrison and Tony Abbott both recorded a jump of between 10 and 15 percentage points while Malcolm Turnbull went backwards by 11 points. Julia Gillard recorded a slight bounce in her net approval rating after she was able to form a minority government in 2010.
The Essential poll dates back only to 2009. But Albanese’s improvement most closely resembles the honeymoon enjoyed by Kevin Rudd after the 2007 election, when Newspoll found the newly elected leader had a net positive approval rating of 57%.
In his first address to the Labor caucus following the election, Albanese urged MPs not to “waste a day” in government, saying he had no intention of returning to the opposition benches.
The change in government has seen a shift in sentiment about the country’s direction. When asked if they believed Australia was heading in the right direction or was on “the wrong track”, almost half (48%) of respondents said the country was on a positive trajectory, an eight-point increase since before the election, the latest Essential poll suggests.
There has been a 15 percentage point drop in those who say the country is on the wrong track, but a growing proportion of people – 25%, up from 18% – are unsure about the path ahead.
Despite the ongoing economic uncertainty marked by high inflation and rising interest rates, about a third of those surveyed believe economic conditions will improve in Australia in the next 12 months – a five-point increase – compared with 40% who believe things will get worse.
At a household level, people are divided about their own financial situation, with about a third thinking things will be better, a third fearing things will be worse, and a third believing their circumstances will remain the same.
However, about twice as many people (35%) believe an Albanese-led Labor government is better for the financial health of their household than those who believe a Peter Dutton-led Coalition government would see them faring better (18%).
Despite recent interest rate hikes and expectations of further increases, the poll of 1,087 people found 42% still rate their current financial circumstances as “secure”, suggesting they are able to pay bills and “usually have money spare for savings or buying luxuries”.
About a third of those surveyed (31%) say they are “struggling a bit”, while 7% say they are in “serious difficulty” and being able to pay the bills is an ongoing concern. These figures are largely unchanged over the past six months.
The rising cost of living remains the No 1 issue of concern for voters, with 77% of people ranking it in their top three priorities, and almost half (44%) nominating it as their number one concern.
Ahead of a Fair Work Commission decision on the minimum wage due on Wednesday, about half of all voters also rated the fact that wages were not keeping up with inflation among their top three issues of concern.
The Essential poll, which has a 3% margin of error, also asked voters their view on whether Australia should become a republic with an Australian head of state. In the wake of platinum jubilee celebrations for the Queen, the poll found 44% of people supported change with 34% opposed – a six percentage point increase in opposition compared to when the question was last asked in March 2021. Nearly 22% of people were unsure.
