Anthony Albanese has finished 2024 with his popularity in the doldrums but there is some hope for Labor’s political revival in the new year, with more Australians seeing better days ahead.
Those are the results of the final Guardian Essential poll of the year, in which many respondents confirmed that 2024 had been worse than they expected and they are worse off than three years ago, underscoring the difficulty for the federal government leading into an election year.
The poll of 1,151 voters found that the prime minister’s net approval rating is now -11, with 50% disapproving of the job he is doing (up three points since November) and 39% approving (down three).
Albanese’s rating is a bit better in his home state of New South Wales (minus 3), but worse in Queensland (minus 21), where Labor won just five seats at the 2022 election, and Western Australia (minus 17), which helped deliver Labor majority government with the pickup of four seats.
Peter Dutton’s approval rating is slightly positive (plus 3), with 44% approving of his performance as opposition leader (up two since November), and 41% disapproving (down one).
Dutton performed strongly with men (plus 15) but his popularity lagged with women (minus 7).
A majority of respondents (51%) said Australia was on the wrong track, with just 31% saying it was on the right track and 18% unsure.
Almost half the sample (47%) said 2024 had ended up being worse than they expected at the beginning of the year, compared with just 20% who said it was better, 30% who said it was as expected and 3% who preferred not to say.
Over a three-year timeframe results were similar, with 40% reporting they were worse off, 35% about the same and 25% better off.
Nevertheless, the poll largely reproduced findings of Labor’s internal polling that, when it comes to deciding their vote for the federal election, two-thirds (68%) said it was more important to consider “who will make me better off in three years” compared with just a third (32%) who said “whether I am better off than I was three years ago”.
Views on prospects in 2025 were a little more hopeful, with 37% expecting it to be better than 2024 (up 13 points on views in December 2023 of 2024), 25% no different, 21% worse (down 11 points), and 17% unsure.
In November Albanese addressed an election-style rally in Adelaide, declaring that Australia had navigated through the “global storm” of high prices and has “new reasons for optimism and new proof the worst is behind us”.
Voters were still sceptical, with most expecting price increases for groceries (71%), energy (69%) and housing costs (62%). The result for interest rates was mixed, with 43% expecting an increase in the next year (down 17 points), 28% expecting a decrease and 21% expecting them to be about the same.
But, given market expectations for rate cuts in 2025, the result demonstrates the potential upside for Labor of a pre-election cut in the cash rate dispelling voters’ lingering negativity.
Voters expect unemployment to rise (40% said up next year, 33% said down) and wages to fall (25% said up next year, 51% said down). Cuts to wages from Coalition changes to industrial relations are likely to feature in negative campaigning warning against a Dutton government.
Respondents said they planned to spend summer catching up with friends and family (77%), going to the beach (51%), reading a book (50%) or watching cricket (29%).
Australia does not appear to be a nation of great readers though, with two-thirds of respondents saying they either did not read a book in the last year (30%) or read just one to three books (35%). The rest reported reading four to 10 books (20%) or more than 10 (14%).
There are few signs of a Christmas shopping splurge, with just 16% reporting they intend to spend more than usual on gifts this year, 46% saying they will spend “roughly the same as usual” and 35% saying they will spend less than usual.
